Good Tuesday, folks. It’s another September-like day across the Commonwealth as we track several upper level lows across our part of the world. These will keep our temps below normal and give us the occasional shower or thunderstorm.
Let’s begin with today and then roll ahead. There’s a better chance for showers and storms in the far west than anywhere else, especially early on. The rest of the state will see just a stray shower or storm going up and that will show up on your friendly radars…
Temps are in the upper 70s to low 80s for many and that looks to be rather common over the next week. Those upper level lows show up well on the EURO…
In terms of rainfall, scattered showers and storms will be around this week with a greater chance for showers and storms this weekend and early next week. This animation goes from Friday through next Tuesday…
The pattern will then warm closer to normal after that, but the various ENSEMBLES all show the final 10 days of the month still coming in below normal as a whole…
GFS Ensembles
CANADIAN Ensembles
EURO Ensembles
I’m good with that!
We haven’t talked much about the tropics because we haven’t had much to track. That continues to be the case…
Things should pick up late month into September… Should being the key word!
Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.
Thanks Chris, for the end of August that’s a great forecast. The Tropics, why they aren’t active have me puzzled ? By now it surely couldn’t be due to Saharan dust which was present in the atmosphere earlier in the season ? This La Nina we have been in for three years going is acting more neutral but is expected to strengthen as we approach Fall and Winter and then weaken as we enter the Spring months ? Then what ?
As we approach the traditional September peak, this year has definitely been a hurricane season in the doldrums. La Niña conditions have contributed to near record sea surface temperatures in the far western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, ideal conditions for storm strengthening, yet 2022 is one of 4 years over the past 30 where we have not had a named storm during the first days of July through the middle of August. The Saharan dust is beginning to abate, but in the meantime its reflective qualities have caused the ocean waters between the coast of Africa and past the Cape Verde islands to range colder than normal. Also, persistent low level winds have been tearing storms apart before they could develop, and both factors have seriously inpacted the spawning ground for Atlantic storms. The Hurrican Center sees these conditions improving over the next week to ten 10 days, and if that forecast pans out, the late August through September period could be wild and woolly!
Great information Joe !!! and thanks for answering all my questions on why this Tropical storm season so far has been so quiet. Learned a lot from your post above.