Good Thursday and welcome to fall. The new season is here and it’s kicking off with a perfectly timed fall cold front pushing through the region. This is bringing very chilly air that’s leading to a Pot of Chili ALERT through Friday. Make sure to stock up on chili supplies today… This is NOT a drill!
Our front is sweeping southward very quickly today and it has a few scattered showers and storms along and ahead of it. The best chance is across the south…
A dry and cool northerly wind kicks in through the day as skies try to become partly sunny. Temps range from the middle 60s to low 70s.
Clear skies tonight allow temps to tank by Friday morning. The numbers drop into the 40-45 degree range for many, but the NAM fam continues to show the chance for some upper 30s in some of the coldest valleys…
Highs on Friday are into the 60s for most of the state with clouds increasing.
Those clouds may spit out a scattered shower or storm for Saturday as temps return to the 70s. We stay there into Sunday before the next fall system sweeps in with some showers and storms that last into early Monday. Chilly winds blow behind this system with the threat for another system dropping in from the northwest…
That’s a chilly fall pattern for the final days of September, folks. If you recall, the ensembles nailed this pattern nearly 2 weeks ago.
The big ticket weather item for next week comes from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. We are very likely to be dealing with a hurricane threatening the eastern Gulf Coast states before next week is finished.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking the disturbance in question and powerful Hurricane Fiona…
Fiona is heading toward Nova Scotia in the coming days and may be one of the worst storms on record for Canada.
There is a long way to go before figuring out exactly where this other system winds up and just how strong it will be. The Ensembles and operational models all continue to develop this, but differ in placement and timing.
Keep in mind, there’s nothing close to being set in stone with any track, but it’s always interesting to follow trends in the models. They all have a Gulf system and hit, but there’s a wide spread in the current model thinking…
CANADIAN
EURO
GFS
Wherever this winds up, another deep fall trough likely follows.
Have a great start to fall and take care.
A couple of reasons why the tropics have suddenly come alive include shearing winds, which have a tendency to interfere with a storm’s rotation, have lessened considerably, while Saharan dust, and the extremely dry air that accompanies it, have reduced for the first time since Summer began. The system heading for the Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of bringing drought breaking moisture into our region, but the very warm water temperatures in the Gulf could lead to rapid intensification.
There’s little change in the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly chart, with above normal temperatures across the northern Pacific, and a large area of warmer than normal water off of New England. This particular patch is one of the main reasons why forecasters are predicting that Fiona could be the worst hurricane to hit the Cansdian Maritime provinces in recent memory, since Fiona can maintain strength in waters that are usually much colder at this time of the year.
Great information Joe ! We didn’t receive any Rain, so we wait and hope there are no Wildfires anywhere. The drought is beginning to get serious here in Maple. The extended outlook doesn’t look to promising either.
Any Tropical Disturbance that’s gets into the Gulf will explode into a Monster. I pray and hope those Folks along the Gulf will not have to deal with another disaster like Hurricane Katrina.
Nice, very early Fall like weather finally.
Here’s the most recent Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly charts, and another chart that I found, which provides current water temperatures along the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico.
SSTA
Gulf of Mexico water temperatures:
https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=GOES&area=MidAtl&plot=sst&day=0&loop=0
Water temperatures in large areas of the Gulf are in the 85°F to 90°F range
East Coast water temperatures:
https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=GOES&area=MidAtl&plot=sst&day=0&loop=0
Mid 70°’s ocean water nearly to Cape Cod!
SSTA:
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
Thanks Joe, for sharing those sst Charts. I bookmark them for future studies.
I would like to see a little more rain in the forecast.
Yeah, I just saw where Louisville is well below normal on Rainfall for the year but, I believe my county of Taylor is one of the driest in the state.
Here is the link for the summary of the scattered wind damage produced by thunderstorms that hit the Western Suburbs of Chicago late Tuesday afternoon, along with photos that show the storms, some of the damage, and a spectacular rainbow.
https://weather.gov/lot/2022sept20
Meantime, it’s a gorgeous, sunny, breezy, day today with temperatures in the mid 60s, in what has been a very warm September. The NWS Forecast Office in the SW Suburbs saw a high of 93 Tuesday and 86 Wednesday.
Thanks Mike, Great footage on the wind damage in your area of Chicago. Just goes to show you what La Nina does to the Northern States.
Chili is just as good in July. 😉
Correct !