Good Friday to one and all. It’s fall, Y’all! As expected, Mother Nature flipped the switch straight to fall and this pattern is locked in place now. While the pattern is fall, we still have a lot to track, including historic stuff in the tropics.
Temps this morning are likely in the 40-45 degree range for many with an outside shot at upper 30s in the coldest valleys. This comes roughly 36 hours after many areas hit 90 or better and will go down as one of the most extreme temp swings we’ve ever had. Think about that, folks. We go from the 90s to upper 30s and low 40s in under two days. Wow!
Highs today are mainly in the 60s across central and eastern Kentucky with 70-75 in the far west. Clouds will increase, but the day is dry and pleasant.
Those clouds are ahead of a weak system rolling across the state on Saturday and it’s bringing the chance for a few showers and storms with it. The models are spitting out some decent coverage for Saturday…
EURO
GFS
Another potent fall storm system then works through the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday. This brings an increase in showers and storms that will be followed by another chilly blast of fall…
Temps continue to run well below normal behind that early next week.
Ok, let’s talk about the tropics. We have Hurricane Fiona that is about the make headlines as it moves toward the Canadian Maritimes and the disturbance heading into the Caribbean. That will likely become a tropical storm or hurricane in the coming days and get into the Gulf of Mexico…
Fiona is a monster storm that will slam into Nova Scotia early Saturday. Folks, this is one of the most extreme maps you will ever see…
Hurricane Warnings are out for the Canadian Maritimes for what could be their biggest storm hit on record. That’s extreme in itself but the real extreme comes with how far north this named storm gets… All the way to Baffin Bay and Greenland! Wow. For reference… this is forecast to get to the Arctic Circle…
That is astounding and it will be interesting to see what kind of impact, if any, that has on the fall and winter ahead.
Now to the other storm forming in the Caribbean. This storm will likely develop quickly and turn into a Hurricane and head toward the Gulf of Mexico. The track on this is still a ways from being known and we are seeing the usual changes in the operational models. As of now, anyone from Texas to Florida should be on alert, especially in the eastern Gulf.
The latest models continue to alter track and timing and we only look at them for potential trends.
The latest runs (as of this writing) from the EURO and Canadian Models are east into Florida…
The overnight run of the Hurricane Models are also trending toward Florida…
Have a fantastic Friday and take care.
Thanks Chris, looks like another very nice day here in South Central Kentucky. The present temperature in Maple is 47 degrees not really that cool, but dew points in the 40’s is making it feel like early Autumn. Some color is showing up on the trees, but this may be due to drought stress in my area.
I don’t know how a Tropical Storm moving all the way towards the North Pole could affect our Fall and Winter here in Kentucky, unless it causes blocking and a record breaking negative NAO ? Or it could amplify the effects of La Nina and give us another ‘ puny ‘ two weeks of Winter weather later in the Winter or Spring with unwanted late freezes ?
The Tropical action in the Atlantic along with the Southeast Ridge may be causing our current drought ? Hoping this ends soon with a Cold and Wet October ???
Fiona may have an effect on the North Atlantic storm track, similar to what has occurred in the past when typhoons make there way into the Northern Pacific. In this case, Europe may see a surge of colder air. There may also be a northwards shift inthe jet stream over Greenland, similar to how warmer than normal ocean water in the Northern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska has contributed to colder than normal air reaching the central and eastern U.S.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/5/jcli-d-17-0420.1.xml
Great article Joe. Hurricane Fiona, now a category 4 may make a difference in the North- South migrations of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High in the North Atlantic by either strengthening one or the other effecting the NAO. Hopefully, towards a very strong and long lasting negative on the NAO.
This would give the Ohio Valley a cold and Snowy Winter and override the strong La Nina we have for this Fall and early Winter before it approaches ENSO- neutral sometime in March 2023.
The Southeast Ridge on the lee side of the Appalachians may be amplified by all the action in the North Atlantic and result in numerous Nor’ Easters. This very occurrence happened back in the 1980’s.
I think years ago Chris said on one of this posts that when there’s a lot of tropical activity in the Atlantic…our weather here is usually dry and boring.. either HE said that or someone commented or something. It’s vague in my memory Anyway…I had never made that connection until then and started noticing that it’s absolutely true.
Mark, I heard that the action in the Tropical Atlantic as well as the Caribbean can cause our weather to be very uneventful. Years ago back in the 1960’s I learned this from Meteorologist Marcia Yockey, but she always said that a Tropical Depression coming up the Mississippi River can ” rain buckets ” in the Ohio Valley, but I haven’t seen this happen in years.
Tropical depression 9 seems at the present, is moving towards the west- southwest, could be good news for the Gulf States. Here’s the link :
https://weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2022/Hurricane-Atlantic-2022.htm