Good Friday, everyone. Chilly winds are blowing behind a strong cold front working through the region today. This ushers in a cold air mass for the weekend and it’s one that brings our first killing frost and light freeze. While on the subject of cold, we will take a little look into November and December to see what kind of cold we can find.
Today’s cold front continues to press southward through the region and it’s largely void of any showers. I suppose one or two spots could see a shower, but most of us are dry and windy. Temps fall from north to south through the day and that sets the stage for a cold night ahead.
Temps tonight range from the upper 20s and low 30s for parts of north central Kentucky to the mid and upper 30s south and far east.
Saturday is colder than today with upper 50s and low 60s for highs with lows by Sunday morning into the upper 20s and low 30s. That’s when we have our best chance for a light freeze for much of the region.
Temps rebound quickly into the first half of next week with some 70s a good bet. That’s ahead of what may be an even stronger cold front sweeping through here by Wednesday and Thursday with cold air behind it…
EURO
GFS
That’s some really cold air coming in behind that late next week into next weekend and it’s likely to be followed up by another cold shot into the following week…
This fall is turning out vastly different than recent fall’s in the fact it’s colder than normal and drier than normal.
The new seasonal run of the EURO is out and it has an interesting look for the start of winter. If we look at the overall 500mb average height anomaly for the month of November, you can clearly see how the model likes a trough in the east…
That would allow for colder air intrusions from Canada. That would then give us a better shot at some winter weather early on.
The same map for December deepens that trough and you can use your imagination to see how that trough in the east almost connects back toward the Yukon…
If you like cold and snow threats for the holiday season, the above pattern certainly gives you hope this year.
Have a fantastic Friday and take care.
It looks like tropical depression 13 in the Caribbean appears destined to head west, due to strong east to west steering winds, and should end up deep in the Yucatan Peninsula.
At 2:15pm CDT on Thursday, the temperature at my PWS near Bowling Green hit 82°F, while at the same time the humidity was a bone dry 25%, resulting in a 47.4°F dewpoint. I was doing some lawn maintenance on Thursday and notice. that the soil was completely dry to a depth of 8 to 10 inches. According to the local forecast, our next chance for rain is next Thursday, but only a 40% chance. This dry spell is edging into mild drought territory, and I don’t like it one bit!
When the Tropical season ends and if it ends, then we will get back to a more west to east pattern, but we still have a strong La Nina to affect our Winter weather here in the Ohio Valley. How that turns out largely depends on NAO the AO and the PNA. Snow Lovers in the eastern half of the country would want the NAO and the AO in record breaking negative territory and the PNA in the very positive territory. Will that happen ? No one knows. This occurred in the Fall and Winter 1917-18 which happened to be the coldest, snowiest Winter of the 20th century. I’m still hoping for a warmer and most importantly a rainy Fall and Winter to replenish the soil moisture before Spring planting season 2023.
Basically the same type of pattern we have been under since the beginning of September except the air is colder.
When the Tropical Atlantic pattern changes we will change patterns, but when will that occurs ? Then what pattern will take over ? Hopefully, a wet pattern involving a balance of rain and snow events with no extreme Arctic outbreaks.
It has been a strange Sept./Oct. so far, especially in regards to Fall colors. Many trees in South Central Kentucky have began turning quite a bit earlier than in prior years, and a few in my neighborhood have actually reached their peak, with a level of colors which are more intense than I would have expected from trees experiencing a prolonged dry spell. My sweet gum tree, which is usually one of the last of my trees to turn, is well ahead of my maple trees, and t
hese aren’t saplings, but mature 60 foot trees.
Speaking of trees (and strange!), the local squirrel population have been much more active than in previous years, racing up and down tree trunks at a frantic pace.
Going into town this morning to a Doctor’s appointment, I notice that various tree species are also more brilliant in their Fall foliage than I’ve seen in many years. I tribute this to the build up of their sugars due to the excessive dry spell. Maybe we will have those perfect Fall foliage colors after all, despite the lack of rain ?
Hurricane Julia has now formed in the Caribbean Sea, but I can’t find any discussion on her as of yet. Hopefully, she will not be a major problem for the Gulf coast states.
Excuse me. It’s Tropical Storm Julia.
The hurricane center forecasts Julia to head due west, reach minimal hurricane strength Sunday evening just off the Nicaraguan coast, and then continue straight inland.