Good Sunday, folks. Rain overspreads parts of the state today as we get set for a major surge of cold air. This will likely break all kinds of records over the next few days and there’s even a chance for some areas to get close to all-time record cold for October.

As mentioned, showers and a few thunderstorms overspread the southern half of the state. Locally heavy downpours will be possible in the south, but areas in the northern half of the state may not see much rain at all. This is a pretty fine line setting up across the Commonwealth and that will show up on your radars…

Winds will continue to be gusty as our winter looking system cranks across the eastern half of the country. You know you’re dealing with a winter system when it can bring lake-effect snows and wraparound snows all the way into the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains in the middle of October…

Look at the snowfall map from the Euro…

Those flakes get awfully close to northern Kentucky on Tuesday! It might end up being a really close call and I haven’t shut the door on a flake coming south of the Ohio River.

Regardless, the cold is the main player and it’s likely historic for much of the region. Check out the temp departures from normal from Monday morning through Thursday morning…

Highs on Monday are only in the 50s and may not get out of the 40s for Tuesday. The lows likely break daily records for many Tuesday and Wednesday and may challenge the all-time coldest temps for October.

For reference, 20 is the coldest temp ever recorded in October and the GFS is forecasting a low of 21…

Those wind chills from the GFS are obscene…

Now, in order for us to get that cold, we will need clear skies. Any bit of cloud cover keeps temps in the upper 20s.

Record lows will likely fall on Wednesday morning, too…

Many areas will likely see a third straight morning in the 20s on Thursday. I’m still searching the record books, but I have yet to find another October where Lexington had 3 consecutive mornings in the 20s in October.

For folks who love stats, there ya go. For weather folks who love to take my stats and pass them along as their own work… Can you give me a little credit for doing the work for you? 😜

Have a great day and take care.