Good Friday evening and welcome to the weekend. Let’s cut to the chase… we are facing a high threat for heavy rain and flooding from late Sunday through early Wednesday of next week.

A stalled out boundary will hang around the Ohio Valley during this time as waves of low pressure work northeastward through our region. This boundary will have a mega temp gradient to feed upon with arctic cold in the northern tier of states and very mild air across the southeastern states.

Widespread rains of 2″-5″ will be common across the state. Locally higher amounts will be possible for some across western and southern Kentucky. This will fall upon a soggy ground and all that water will flow into our streams and rivers that are already running high and some are above flood stage.

I talked a few days ago about how this pattern reminded me of first week of December of 1978. That featured back to back rainstorms that lead to significant flooding along many rivers across the state. The second storm that year ended with a change to snow as temps took a big dive. This is actually a pretty good analog to what I think will happen this week.

I like how the European Model is handing the middle and end of the week…



That’s a heck of a shot of arctic air surging into the country by the end of the week and could set up some overrunning snows at some point next weekend.

Busy, busy times ahead as this continues to be a supercharged pattern loaded with extreme events. Be patient… your time will come!

Have a great evening and take care.