Good Friday everyone. Your friendly weatherdude has been a traveling fool over the past few days and hasn’t been updating as much as normal. Wait… there is no such thing as normal on here. 
I’m getting caught up on the past several runs of each model, so I’m only going to hit the high notes in this update.
Today and Saturday will be very nice weather days with temps in the low 50s today and low and mid 50s Tomorrow. Clouds will increase Saturday as rain shoots our way for Sunday and lasts into early next week.
I am going with a slower solution with a scaled down cutoff low early next week. This means we have a lot of rain coming from Sunday through Tuesday and a blast of winter to follow late Tuesday into Wednesday.
The early call on rainfall…
Heavy rains will likely cause renewed high water issues across much of the state with our rivers being the prime targets. They are already swollen or in flood and that much rain will likely cause additional, possibly significant, troubles.
I really like the look of the Canadian Model with how all this plays out. The GFS is following up last week’s disaster of having it’s worst verification scores in years with another flop of a forecast this week. The European has something similar to the Canadian and both indicate the potential for a nice little switch to now late Tuesday into Wednesday as cold air rushes in.
Here is the Canadian for Wednesday…
Notice the arctic blast showing up along the Canadian Border? That’s the air mass I have been talking about that has been downplayed a lot as having no chance of impacting the weather for the eastern half of the country or locally. Well… every single model shows this coming south and engulfing much of the country by the end of next week into next weekend. That doesn’t mean it will… but it’s not just a figment of my imagination.
Look at the GFS Ensembles 850mb Temp Departures…
You can thank a huge ridge along the west coast of North America for dislodging the cold and changing the overall pattern toward cold and wintry. I know some folks think that just because the NAO or AO are both positive that you can’t get big cold shots into our region. The winter of 1993-94 would like to have a word with those people. 
A more in depth and full update coming your way later today. Have a great Friday and take care.
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What was the cause of the exceptionally strong Santa Ana winds? Does that play into what will be happening around here?
I graduated in 94, remember that winter well. Got out for christmas break and I think it was almost february before we got back to school. Two great storms in Jan. Around here.
Good question, KP.
If nothing else, that wind event out West continues to show that the weather in our part of the globe continues to run in the Extreme category. Eventually us folks here in KY will get in on the action.
I’ll sure be glad when those sloppy,muddy rainfall maps become frosty snowfall maps!!!…
Grrrrrrrr. Another rain event with a a little bit of snow on the backside. This set up makes for a very depressed snow lover. Oh well, it is still fall (astronomical), so there is plenty of chances ahead of us.
It will Cold sometime…If “we” keep saying its coming, it will .
IT’S COMING! There, I did my part.
So far…NWS in Jackson has been right on target with our forecast here in Harlan County. So whoever is making their forecast has done a good job up to this point.
well, so far mad man henry over at accuweather is really at odds with chris bailey over the cold coming and any arctic air getting involved for any length of time at all. he is in agreement with chris on the snow fall potential for next week. only time will tell as always.
CB beat me to it…HPC going gangbusters about rain amounts for next week.
Widespread 3-5″ amounts across the state.
Some areas downstate possibly over 5″
Expect minor to moderate flooding along several rivers and other tributaries next week.
Chris… whats your latest opinion on the December chill that I hear some saying now will be centered more in the center and western part of the nation..do you think this will play a big part in our chances of cold/snowy weather over the next few weeks?
what does the weather look like, long range looking, for a trip to texas around the 17th or so?
i saw on weather channel about a long range dec through march outlook where we are to have warmer then average temps with normal precipitation. I thought almost everyone was giving a long cold harsh winter?
Hey Chris G, we’re leaving around the 17’th to drive to D/FW.
When I was a young boy, I learned a couple things. #1…you can’t rely on TWC. #2…you can’t rely on AccuWeather. #3…well never mind. I won’t even begin with Farmer’s Almanac. I use the trio of Chris Bailey, climatology-based instinct and wooly worms.
If I remember right last winter we got really cold & the snows went south of KY a few times (like Atlanta) so this year maybe we will be a touch warmer, but that might give us a better chance at moisture/cold combo??
yea the winter outlook is for above normal precip and abover warmer temps for souther 3rd of ky that i saw yesterday.
how bout them HAZARD BULLDOGS.