Good Thursday and welcome to the final month of the year.Today is also the beginning of meteorological winter and it’s starting out on a rather tame note. Tha’s about to change as we have a very active and wintry pattern taking shape for much of the country over the next few weeks.
Things start out nice enough today with temps rebounding into the upper 40s and low 50s for highs. We will do it again on Friday with similar temps under partly sunny skies. Saturday continues to look like the warmest day we will see for a while with temps in the 50-55 degree range for many.
This mild day is ahead of a big trough digging in by Sunday and Monday. This will lead to widespread rains developing Sunday and Continuing into Monday. What happens at this point depends on how slow this dip in the jet stream works through the region. Does it cutoff somewhere nearby or does it slowly work through?
There is a heck of a shot of cold air behind this trough with many models showing 850mb temps of -10 to -15c. This will ensure a switch to snow at some point and how much snow will depend on how the trough acts.
The GFS has been alternating between a closed low and a very slow moving system. The first part of the storm from the GFS would be the heavy rain threat. Check out the latest rain totals it’s spitting out…
Our ground is saturated and our streams and rivers are full, so this is something we need to keep a very close eye on.
The run we’re talking about does not close the upper low off and instead VERY slowly works the trough through here on Tuesday with cold air meeting the back of the precip. The end result from this run is snow on the ground for the eastern half of the state…
As usual… that’s for entertainment purposes only as the model will change with each and every run.
The GFS Ensembles are even slower with this system and have more of snow look to them with moisture overrunning the front into the cold air…
The Canadian Model is much more progressive with a switch to some snow later Monday and some leftover snow showers and flurries for Tuesday. It appears to leave some southern stream energy behind before bringing it out for some snow for Thursday.
I am just getting a look at the new European Model as of this writing. It goes the cutoff low route with rain into Tuesday and a switch to snow for later Tuesday and Wednesday. The look of the European is one that wants to put a thumping snow across the Ohio Valley.
I can’t tell you which of those solutions will be right, but they all have a common theme. Heavy rain to some snow as the coldest air of the season, so far, works in. I can’t tell you how much or exactly when your hometown will get what. You will know when I think I know.
I’m on the road a lot today, so i’m not exactly sure if I can give you any updates. I will be firing some quickie updates via twitter.
Have a great Thursday and take care.
haha Chris said THUMPING! woooo whooo
Cold morning and extrememly hard frost in Lexington.
Heavy rain followed by light snow and flurries is an all to common forecast for central ky.
Followed a salt truck in to town spreading salt in knox county this morning
Chris uses a lot of snow related words to debate snow junkies, helps with keeping traffic heavy on his site
traffic hasnt been heavy at all, yea he gets click on and read and that great, but the discussion and posters are not here like they used to be. the DIE HARDS are and i guess that all that matters.
Wait until the first snowstorm and you’ll find out.. 100-200+ posts a day.
DID I MISS CB’S 2011-2012 WINTER FORECAST SOMEWHERE?
trying to be optimistic, but not really liking the pattern we are in! Time and again a ton of moisture rolls by then comes the cold air. These cut off lows have been showing up for a long time now, and I don’t see how they will ever be a snow producer for this area. Hope I am wrong, or the pattern changes!
ALSO HERE IS A COOL WEBSITE THAT SHOWS THE LATEST GFS AND NAM RUNS, BUT IT SHOWS THEM IN A RAIN/SNOW/ICE MAP. CHECK IT OUT. (RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING PRETTY GLOOMY AND DOOMY FOR SNOW LOVERS THOUGH. NOT SHOWING ANYTHING AT ALL REALLY A WEEK OUT…..)
http://coolwx.com/ptype/
Snow for the eastern part of the state… hmm… where have I heard that before?
that was me
cool site, but you could have waited to share til it showed a ton of snow!LOL
I have not seen it on here, but there was a nice “Winter Forecast” in Saturday’s Lexington Herald…..
I sure hope this pattern does’nt give us folks here in ky. literal fits this yr.!
Always wondered why they say the ground is too warm for snow to accumulate, but the I can walk out of my house on a morning like today and the frost is so heavy it looks like a snowfall!
still look good for snow next week, if everything comes togther a good decent one for early year.
our maniac freiend HM says 60 percent of vontry snow on ground by mid dec.
Yes, he put it out a couple of weeks ago (early-mid Nov. if I recall correctly. But, as the other person said, it was also in the Lexington paper over the weekend (and on line)
http://weather.bloginky.com/ go down about 3/4 of the way on that page and you should see it. I don’t believe Chris ever put it on here.
Oooo… I’m seeing some interesting things in this new model run…
What are you seeing wxman? Don’t be teasing us.
Looks like some tail-end snow at 160 hrs
Is this the real WXman..?
Lets hope for a closed low to bring Lexington some snow! Also, Im trying to go to the Kentucky UNC game this weekend but cant find good tickets. If anyone knows someone thats wants to sell click my name and send me an email. Im here in lexington. Thanks
got 2 tickets section 24 8 rows up, take take 450 a piece for them. bout 4 yesterday me and my brother for 350 a piece and that was off of a friend. ive seen seats going for 600 and up.
ohh see now u said send email sorry.
yea he seeing santa claus cheating on mrs claus, and a severe weather outbreak in trniadad.lol
seriously if he looking at what i see next week from tenn up thru new york see some ok snows.
The NWS has gone out on a limb & said the rain COULD end as a rain/snow mix with this next storm. WOW, how dare they even mention the S word this far out :)??
Yes, that is him. Unlike some people, he is a realist. And if he talks about snow, take him seriously. lol
Amen brother, amen. Somebody has to keep it real around here.
P.S… I never said “snow”. 😉 But I do see some interesting features showing up…
LMK has some new forecasters. The AFD product has previously been their hallmark, and recently it’s been poor to say the least. The AFD is very helpful to the general public who has a slight more interest or responsibility with the weather.
Do tell WXman….I appreciate your perspective. I’m wondering if some ice could be thrown into the mix. For the record I hate ice and have such a hard time putting much stock in a snow that starts as rain this early in the season….just sayin…
I have not personally seen Chris’ Winter Forecast on this here blog.
As previously mentioned, it was published on the Herald-Leader’s website over this past weekend.
Rolo, it’s fine… I’m on here all the time. I’m trying to keep it around 500-600 for 2 tickets. they are going high. thanks
oh my i just saw a very discouraging updated winter forecast..(if your a snow/cold weather fan that is).. 🙁
showing dec. to be slightly below average
Jan. above average,
Feb. BLOWTORCH!!
March winter returns for a while..for a sloppy spring. 🙁
and snowfall will be below average due to battleground (imagine that ) here in ky..with ICE…
……………..
NIGHTMARE!!!!!!!!!! ON WEATHER STREET!!
Im gonna pretend like I never saw it…
OH MY!
Your kidding right? It has really been poor? Why not enlighten me withnsome concrete/specific examples of when the AFD has been poor. Yeah, we have had some turnover, but we’ve got some good talent in here and verification to back it up.
Lol rolo has been around forever. I’ve been looking at this site since I think 2008. But it coulda been 2009. Lol but your right lots of comments when storms come
I’m going to pretend you never posted it. 🙂 The only way you can really tell what the weather is going to do is look out the window in the morning. Chris is the most accurate of anybody but 7 days out is tough to predict much less 1, 2, or 3 months out. Central Kentucky offended the weather gods somewhere in the past. MJ thinks we need to have a human sacrifice of WX man to make it right. (that was just a joke folks)
I am with MJ on this one, maybe its because it seems like wilmington sometimes barely even mentions beyond the medium range but i read lmk’s and it’s always better than wilmingtons…actually alot of offices dont seem to say much after the medium range
I never suggested that the new talent was poor, only the effort going into the AFD product. Clearly I noticed a distinct difference, or I wouldn’t have brought it up, right? It isn’t like I’m trash talking LMK…I would just like to see some effort instead of spelling out what a person can already see in the zone forecast.