Good evening gang and thanks for checking out what we have to say. December gets off to a rather tame start around here, but don’t be fooled. A wild pattern is ahead of us over the next few weeks and it has a ton of winter to bring to the country. Yes… this should include us.

I mentioned in my last update that the big dip in the jet stream late this weekend into early next week had the look of one that could produce another cutoff low. The European Model ran straight to that idea late last night and continued the trend today… albeit with a different placement.

The GFS is also on board with a cutoff…



IF the cutoff low idea is correct it would mean another drenching rain from Sunday into Monday with a switch to snow on Tuesday. This is a much different setup than the last closed low because it is more northern stream dominated meaning a ton of cold air will be diving into this.

The heavy rain threat is not something we want to see. Take a look at the GFS rain forecast…



Wow. That has major river flooding written all over it. Again… IF it is to be believed.

Check out the cold air slamming into this storm Tuesday into Tuesday night…



That would certainly make for a quick switch to snow as temps take a major dip!

This setup reminds me of one from back in the first week of December 1978. I was a child then, but I’ve often heard about the back to back storms that produced flooding across the state. The second storm ended with accumulating snows and temps dropping into the teens. That temp drop ended up slowing the runoff and helped preclude even worse flooding.

I just pulled up the maps from back then and it’s not a bad match… IF the models are correct. BTW… 78-79 turned very cold and snowy.

Not saying all of this plays out that way… but the maps today got me thinking.

Regardless of the flood threat… old man winter takes some big swings at us over the next few weeks!

Take care.