Good evening gang and thanks for checking out what we have to say. December gets off to a rather tame start around here, but don’t be fooled. A wild pattern is ahead of us over the next few weeks and it has a ton of winter to bring to the country. Yes… this should include us.
I mentioned in my last update that the big dip in the jet stream late this weekend into early next week had the look of one that could produce another cutoff low. The European Model ran straight to that idea late last night and continued the trend today… albeit with a different placement.
The GFS is also on board with a cutoff…
IF the cutoff low idea is correct it would mean another drenching rain from Sunday into Monday with a switch to snow on Tuesday. This is a much different setup than the last closed low because it is more northern stream dominated meaning a ton of cold air will be diving into this.
The heavy rain threat is not something we want to see. Take a look at the GFS rain forecast…
Wow. That has major river flooding written all over it. Again… IF it is to be believed.
Check out the cold air slamming into this storm Tuesday into Tuesday night…
That would certainly make for a quick switch to snow as temps take a major dip!
This setup reminds me of one from back in the first week of December 1978. I was a child then, but I’ve often heard about the back to back storms that produced flooding across the state. The second storm ended with accumulating snows and temps dropping into the teens. That temp drop ended up slowing the runoff and helped preclude even worse flooding.
I just pulled up the maps from back then and it’s not a bad match… IF the models are correct. BTW… 78-79 turned very cold and snowy.
Not saying all of this plays out that way… but the maps today got me thinking.
Regardless of the flood threat… old man winter takes some big swings at us over the next few weeks!
Take care.
Select Page
You can keep the rain….I want some snow!!! Maybe this year we will get a really white Christmas.
Just tell me there’s no chance that will turn into an ice storm!
December 78 was a period that really got me interested in weather. Record KY river flooding here in Frankfort & those records still stand today, lots of snow hammered KY after the flooding that year!
AGREED! These sun-loving gals don’t like the word ICE one teeny little bit!
It sure was nice to see the sun today, wasn’t it?
WOW!! what huge differences…while Roscoe P. coldtrain (LOL) says look out below for artic express!!..the NWS in JACKSON in their long-term discussion says just the opposite!?!?!
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING INTO EAST KENTUCKY
LOOKS REMOTE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE DESPITE SOME RECENT RUNS OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS HINTING AT THIS. THE IDEA OF NO SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR OUTBREAKS FOR US HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY IS SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW THE NAO AND AO REMAINING POSITIVE AND THE PNA
TRENDING NEGATIVE.
so you choose.. Fury,electric underwear..or bikini and flip-flops…LOL…LOL….I know who I’ll go with…and it wont include FLIPPIN AND A FLOPPIN FLOPS!!!…lol…:)…ahhh nothing like some humor on a cold,frosty night!!!
Poor JKL. TG and I were just discussing this particular forecaster Yesterday.
Dense Fog and in the 20s here fun times
As always…….HOPIN’ FOR SNOW!!!!!! LOL
Thanks CB!! Take care everyone…stay warm! Lol
Yes. I just looked up the 1978/79 winter.
It does look at if Dec ’78 only had .7 of snow, but Jan had 11.7 and Feb had 11.6
Jan and Feb were the winners that season.
The seasonal total (for Lex at least) was 23.8 – Based on what I’m looking at.
Oh I remember the winter of 1978 so well! I was a senior in high school and it was the only time in 12 years that my private school (no buses) let out for a snow day! Yes, that’s singular lol. But how I remember wearing LL Bean boots all winter long. They were beautiful, deep snows. Thanks for the happy flashback, Chris!
From hearing my mom talk I was born during a blizzard on February 1 1978. But that was in northern Ohio. I would not mind a few 10~12 inch snows this year but hold the ice please.
I was SO happy to see a bit o’ sunshine!! 🙂
I’ve got four little poodles who love to soak up the rays and they bravely went out in the cold to enjoy some sun. The clouds kept drifting overhead but it was better than nothing. Hopefully today will be even sunnier.
Keep the faith Southern Sunshine Gal!!!
(and we know that everybody else on this blog is hoping for snow, which means cloudy skies!)