Good Friday, folks. It’s our final weekend of October kicking off and that means it’s also time for Halloween. That big weekend forecast starts off in killer shape before turning into a full-blown strangler as we brew up a late Halloween Weekend storm system.

Don’t hate my on weather puns… I happen to think I’m very punny. Get it? Punny instead of funny? Oh never mind. 👻🎃 😜

Let’s break down the big weekend outlook…

  • Things start on a very good note today with highs in the 65-70 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds.
  • Clouds thicken on Saturday as our storm system works our way from the southwest. Showers and a few thunderstorms move into western Kentucky by the afternoon and evening.
  • Those showers and storms quickly overspread the rest of the state Saturday night and Sunday.
  • It’s not all day rain by any means on Sunday, but some hefty rain totals will show up. Temps struggle to get out of the 50s.
  • Scattered showers then linger Sunday night into Halloween.
  • Rainfall numbers are generall .25″-1″ for many with some 1″+ amounts showing up.
  • Halloween itself will feature a few showers that slowly wind down from west to east later in the day. Trick-or-treaters will find the decreasing chance for showers, but that still doesn’t ensure it’s fully dry. We still have some time to work on that.

The GFS is now picking up on the local 1″ amounts…

That weak system I mentioned in my last post as possibly showing up by the middle of the week is a little more prominent on the latest run of the GFS…

I’m not entirely sold on that system having that much of an impact on us, but the overall pattern is changing and it’s doing so very quickly.

I’ve been pointing toward late next week into the following weekend as a bit of a wild card. The EPO is forecast to dip negative in early November and I shared those forecasts with you a few days ago. That suggests a very active look to the pattern as troughs kick east into our region.

The operational models and the ensembles have had some wild swings during the highlighted time period, and I suspect we will see that continue for a bit longer.

The latest GFS is looking a lot like recent runs of the EURO and Canadian in bringing a big system in here late next week and weekend with cold air to follow…

The Canadian still has a similar look…

The look there could bring the threat for strong storms before a major temp drop and this is something for us to watch as we get closer. That’s Breeders’ Cup Weekend here in Lexington, so the forecast certainly takes on added importance.

I will update all this later today, so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.