Good Tuesday, everybody. As hard as it is to believe, we’ve made it to the month of November and it’s full steam ahead toward winter and Christmas.❄️🎅🎄 Oh year, let’s not forget about that pit stop along the way that is Thanksgiving. 🦃
Our month is starting out with above normal temperatures as we have a pattern that’s essentially spinning its wheels for the next week and change. This means temps will be warmer than normal, but that’s actually not that uncommon in early November. As a matter of fact, every single one of my winter analog years had long stretches of highs in the 70s in early November. 🤔
Let’s kick things off with today’s weather then look farther down the road.
Temps are in the 60s with clouds that will be rather stubborn into the afternoon. Some sun should show up along the way. There’s also the chance for a stray shower to linger into the start of the day, so your radars are on duty to find any drop action…
Another weak system scoots through here Wednesday with more clouds and a small chance for a light shower or two. Most of us stay dry.
Temps head toward 70-75 for Breeders’ Cup Friday and Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be gusty as we track a storm system toward the region by Saturday night and Sunday. This will bring widespread severe weather into the Mississippi Valley, but that threat diminishes as it moves in here. Still, I can’t rule out a few strong storms with this setup…
GFS
CANADIAN
The forecast from here continues to focus on a system forming near the Bahamas and how it slows things down over top of it across North America. Some of the latest models try to take this super-slow moving system toward the southeast coast next week before finally getting rid of it…
GFS
CANADIAN
I’m also focusing on the EPO going negative and that’s something I’ve posted about for more than a week now.
We currently have all the ensembles agreeing on the EPO going negative next week and beyond. The green line is the mean…
A negative EPO generally means cold air presses into the eastern half of the country. A positive EPO does the opposite and makes us milder and that’s what’s happening now and over the next week.
Patience, folks.
Another update comes your way later today. Have a wonderful start to November and take care.
Great Indian Summer, but it’s lasting too long, and if the high temperatures achieve 80 degrees during this stretch, it will be the first in November in my lifetime. At least we are beginning to have more chances of rains each weekend. Looking like a slow end to the ongoing drought though.
The ensembles agreeing on the EPO going negative. For this to happen wouldn’t the Polar Low have to weaken ? No signs or signals are suggesting this will happen anytime soon. Too early to forecast such in my opinion. Remember we are entering a third year of La Nina.
Gotta love the warmer weather..Hope modeling is wrong on the -EPO..Wanna see warmer weather last into the middle of December or even better all winter..
But with lots of much needed rains to bring the state to above normal and no severe weather or tornadoes or flooding anywhere. I would be surprised if the EPO goes negative along with the other teleconnections.