Good Thursday to one and all. We have some VERY mild temps taking control of the pattern around here, but big changes are showing up for next week. Between now and then, we track a big wind maker for the weekend and it’s one that will also bring showers and storms with it.
Temps out there today soar into the 70s with mainly sunny skies. Fog may be an issue to start the day, but that burns off fairly quickly.
Friday is the start of the Breeders’ Cup out at Keeneland and the weather looks absolutely phenomenal. Highs are in the 70s with a southwest wind increasing through the day. Those winds then rapidly increase Friday night into Saturday and may reach 40mph or greater. The models are spitting out some big time gusts…
NAM
GFS
These winds are ahead of a potent cold front sweeping in from the west. That front brings showers and thunderstorms in from west to east Friday night and Saturday. The timing on this line of showers and storms for Saturday is crucial for folks heading out to the Breeders’ Cup in Lexington.
The front slows down and keeps some scattered showers and storms going into Sunday.
The GFS has a slower and weaker band of showers and storms moving through…
The EURO is a little quicker and stronger with the action…
The tropics continue to be a major player over the next week, especially the system developing around the Bahamas…
This system will likely develop into a named storm or some kind of hybrid type system as it makes a slow run at the southeastern seaboard next week. This may very well get far enough west to bring rain in here by late Wednesday or Thursday of next week. At the same time, a trough is diving into the eastern half of the country. Can we get these two to hook up? Maybe, but most of the models are keeping them just separate enough.
Here’s the Canadian…
The GFS continues to evolve toward the right idea, but it still has a lot of issues. One of the issues is the convective feedback with that system off the southeast. Watch how it forms multiple smaller scale lows spinning around a parent low…
Moral of the story is that the pattern changes once this system gets out of the way. We will go into a much colder setup that can bring some winter weather opportunities in here during the second half of the month. Stop me if you’ve heard me say that before over the past few weeks. 😜
I will have another update later today. Until then, make it a great day and take care.
Hopefully the wind will remove all the remaining leaves off the trees. One last leaf removal job on my lawn for the year.
Dear Tropics…. ENOUGH ALREADY
A meteorologist in Florida told my Brother in Law that the Hurricane Season may be extended past December ? I don’t know how much truth there is in this forecast, but it’s not a surprise to me.
I’m ready for November like weather cold, cloudy days with rains or snows weekly. The high winds forecast will only ” fan the flames ” if any wildfires happen to breakout.
Next week’s forecast is more of the same above normal temperatures and no organize rain makers. Drought is getting seriously dangerous in my area.
Seasonal Drought Outlook, doesn’t look like and end until after 1 / 31 / 23 ?
https://weatherstreet.com/drought-outlook-us.htm
Considering the rise in sea surface temperatures, lack of shear and the fact that prevailing winds in the equatorial Atlantic are maintaining favorable speed and direction, it doesn’t surprise me at all that the season could extend through year-end. It’s just one more example of how, in recent years, what we had considered to be normal conditions have changed. Last December’s tornadoes, for example.
Maybe Joe when we phase from La Nina to a weak El Nino the Atlantic SST will decrease and the usual progressions of storms and troughs will return.