Good Saturday, folks. We are in a full-blown deep freeze of a weekend across our part of the world, but the cold eases as we start the upcoming Thanksgiving week. The actuall holiday weekend is a different story as a big time storm system looks to impact our region.

The weekend forecast remains unchanged:

🥶🥶

The cold air eases into early next week with temps in the 40s for Monday and Tuesday. There is a southern system that might throw some clouds or sprinkles into the state Tuesday, but it’s nothing floating my boat at the moment.

The setup for Thanksgiving weekend continues to point toward a disruptive storm system for the eastern half of the country. I’ve made it well known for days that this pattern looks to me like it’s a rain and wind maker on the front end, and a change to colder and some snow on the back end.

The models are slowly coming around to a similar theme, but vary wildly from run to run on the details.

The latest GFS continues to trend stronger with the upper level part of this storm, but is still a bit too progressive for my taste…

That spits out a major storm that does indeed take us from rain to snow from Thanksgiving Day through Saturday…

The European Model has a stronger look to it in the upper levels…

It produces a similar result at the surface with rain and wind to start before a change to cold and snow…

Remember, just a few days ago, the models were playing into their respective biases and didn’t show much of a system. Now, you’re seeing the models developing a theme that’s aligned with the ideas I put out several days ago. We will still have some model swings for a few more days and a few of those swings may be wild, but the details of this system will slowly emerge by Monday and Tuesday.

I will have your normal updates later today. Until then, have a happy Saturday and take care.