Good afternoon, folks. It’s a cold, but sunny day across the state as we continue to focus on the holiday week ahead of us. Thanksgiving is just around the corner and a big storm system looks to impact the region during the weekend.

We are coming off a frigid morning across the state as temps dropped to near 10 degrees in a few spots…

A few spots may sneak into the high single digits tonight. Wow.

As far as the Thanksgiving Weekend is concerned, I have no changes to my idea of a big storm system in the east. It’s one that likely starts with rain and wind before going over to cold and some flake action.

The latest Canadian goes straight toward the deep trough in the east…

The surface map isn’t too far away from what I’ve been talking about…

I warned you in my last post some more wild model swings could still take place and, of course, it’s the GFS…

Death, taxes and the GFS being different from every other model are the only certainties in life.

There’s also something interesting coming down the road as we close the book on November and start December. What could it be? Snowstorm? Blizzard? Record cold?

How about a tropical system in the Carribean…

While not the norm for this time of year, it’s also not unheard of. A few of my analog years for the winter forecast even had a storm.

And for the record, this isn’t in the same position as Nicole to back up the pattern.

I’ll update again later today. Make it a good one and take care.