Good afternoon, folks. We have a more normal temperate pattern settling into the region today and that carries us into the state of Thanksgiving Weekend. From there, it’s all eyes on a big storm system for the holiday weekend. One that is still a work in progress.

Before we look ahead, let’s look at an impressive cold weather stat…

That’s incredibly hard to do in the middle of November and with a bare ground.

Normal temps are in the 50s and that’s where we hang out for much of the next several days. That bodes well for early holiday travelers.

The timing of the Thanksgiving Weekend storm system continues to be fluid. I’m now hedging toward two impacts with a lighter one for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, with the main storm arriving over the weekend.

I like what the Canadian is doing…

Notice how it sends one round of showers at us late Thursday into Friday then brings a big storm system in here a few days later with colder air following…

The GFS was actually the first to sniff out this scenario, so I give it props to that. However, now we are seeing the model biases coming into play as it’s too progressive and not strong enough with the storm…

I’ll update all that later today in my next post and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

BTW… Some serious blocking is likely to show up in December and that could mean a severe period of cold for our region. The signs are there and those match many of my winter forecast analog years.

See you guys a little later. Have a good one and take care.