Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s a very nice weather day taking shape across the region and this nice weather hangs into the start of the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Unfortunately, the nice stuff doesn’t stick around as a big time storm system rolls in.
Temps today are deep into the 50s and will make a run at 60 in the west under mostly sunny skies.
That busy travel day Wednesday is a winner with upper 50s to low 60s under a mix of sun and clouds.
The system for Thanksgiving Weekend looks to come at us in two parts. The first is the wimpier of the two and brings some showers in here late Thanksgiving into Black Friday. That’s also when temps look to come down just a bit. There’s some pretty good model agreement with this…
GFS
CANADIAN
The big storm then rolls in here Saturday and Sunday with rain, locally heavy at times, and gusty winds. Again, we now find pretty good model agreement with this.
The GFS is a little too progressive still…
The Canadian is slower and stronger and does bring a few flakes in behind this, but not until Monday…
The European is in the camp of the Canadian with a stronger and slower system…
Wind gusts of 40mph will be possible this weekend.
The setup for next week continues to point toward another potential big storm system aimed farther west. The signal for strong storms and gusty winds is still there.
Signals continue to point toward an increasing amount of blocking showing up as we get into December. If you’re a regular reader, you know my affinity to an index known as the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO). When it’s in the negative phase, like what we have seen during this recent spell, our temps have a tendency to turn colder. When it’s positive, like this week, our temps tend to run milder.
The GFS Ensembles and EURO Ensembles both show the EPO going negative again…
This time, we find the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) threatening to go negative at the same time…
Those two going negative together was actually something I highlighted for December in winter forecast. I think things really come together during the second week of the month or so.
I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.
Well whatever the weather ( and I love snow) I hope everyone has a nice Thanksgiving and safe travels!!
It would be nice to have the heavy rains ( one inch plus ) and then turn to Snow and accumulate to almost a foot before the extreme Arctic air arrives. I remember that often occurred the weekend after Thanksgiving and then it would melt before the next storm arrived. We need an active Subtropical jet to phase with the Polar jet for this Wintertime scenario to happen.
This year-three La Niña doesn’t want to quit, but the usual SW to NE moisture conveyor continues to be MIA. If it ever gets reestablished and teams up with a negative EPO and a negative NAO, December could be wild, white and memorable. But climate change has ensured that big “ifs” are the norm in 2022. It has got to be super challenging to make a living as a long-range weather forecaster!