Good afternoon, folks. It’s a gorgeous day out there, so get out and take advantage of it because things will soon change. Wet weather is on the way for the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend and we’re going to throw some wind in as a bonus.
Here’s a new breakdown of the forecast:
- Wednesday is the busiest travel day of the year and it looks marvelous!
- Clouds increase for Thanksgiving with rain moving into western Kentucky by late afternoon. Temps range from the upper 50s to low 60s.
- Rain overspreads the rest of the state for Thanksgiving night into Black Friday. That busy shopping day looks rather gloomy with rain and chilly temps.
- The main storm system arrives from the southwest on Saturday. Rain and wind will increase with this.
- The upper low spins on top of us Sunday with showers, gusty winds and chilly temps.
- Wind gusts from all this may top 40mph at times.
- Can some wraparound rain or snowflake action take us from late Sunday into Monday morning? I can’t totally rule that out right now.
Let’s focus on the Thursday/Black Friday time period. As mentioned, showers overspread the region and rainfall amounts may top a half inch for the west and south. Take a look at some of the rainfall forecasts from the models…
Our next system is much stronger as it sweeps in from the southwest.
While having the right idea, the GFS is showing it’s biases now by being too fast and too weak with this storm. It can’t seem to focus on a single low. Watch how many Lows this thing pops over just a few days time span…
The Canadian is more consolidated…
The pattern behind this as we close November and begin December next week will feature a serious clash of air masses. Very cold air will be pressing back into the country as milder stuff tries to bubble up from the south. Those two should create a healthy storm by the middle of next week and it’s one we will need to keep an eye out for strong storms.
Models don’t handle pressing low-level cold air very well, so we should keep that in mind for early December. Regardless, we are likely to see a very active storm track setting up with ample cold air ready to get involved in those storms.
December could be a fun month, kiddos.
I will drop by for another update later today. Have a good one and take care.