Good evening, folks. I’m dropping by for another update on the severe threat for Tuesday and where the pattern goes from there. Hint: Things continue to progress toward a very cold look as we head into the middle of December.
The Storm Prediction Center has made no substantial changes to the Tuesday severe threat…
Damaging wind is the primary threat and I could see this being extended just a bit farther east Tuesday night.
A low tornado threat continues to be noted across the western half of the state with a much greater risk into the Lower Mississippi Valley…
With or without storms, winds are a major player around here. Gusts of 50mph or greater will be possible Tuesday night…
Check out the future radar from the HRRR from 4pm Tuesday through 10am Wednesday…
You can definitely see how some stronger storms do, in fact, get all the way into eastern Kentucky Tuesday night.
The front is arriving faster and so is the cold air. This animation shows the actual temps from 1am Wednesday through 1am Thursday…
Wind chills be will be much colder, so keep that in mind.
Thursday is a seasonably cold day with a bounce back in temps on Friday as another cold front drops in from the northwest. This brings showers in here late Friday into Saturday as colder air returns…
Another storm system likely fires up by Sunday and Monday and that could put down a lot of wind and rain around here before cold air crashes in. I’ve talked about this extensively and the models continue to show this next week…
I still don’t think this is the real deal cold, through. That’s likely to show up the following week and matches up with my middle of December timeframe. The EURO Ensembles for December 12th show the pattern I’ve had in my mind since late summer. Those massive blocks over Greenland and near Alaska continue to pull toward one another, forcing deep troughs diving in here…
Blocks like that typically force the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere, relative to normal, into the eastern US and Europe. You can clearly see that happening on this same run of the EURO Ensembles…
Let’s do this, Old Man Winter!
Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.
A good breakdown Chris.
I’m sure we are going to see some crazy model solutions regarding the record AN heights in the area of Greenland.
Yea,Going to be interesting watching the operational models..Case in point last GFS run was bonkers at the end of the run..Also like Chris mentioned in an earlier post about the South East Ridge fighting with the colder air could make for some interesting solutions..But for now we wait..
Looks like some serious wind. Looks like we will get the cold but will we get the flakes to go with it??? Ky always has some wild weather swings so as Chris says buckle up.
Seeing that SPC threat map gave me a case of déjà vu, since they put out a nearly identical chart on December 10th, 2021, the dau before the tornadoes roared through Bowling Green. Thankfully, dewpoints will be far less than they were last year, which will stifle convection. But straight-line winds will definitely be evident, since SW to NE oriented, 120-140 knot mid-level jet stream is forecasted to be over western and west-central KY. I’ll be giving the backyard a once-over to secure loose objects.
For cold weather lovers, seeing the EPO, NAO and AO all going negative is welcome news. Could be our best chance for s*** around here in over a decade!