Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s another super-soaker of a day across Kentucky as a powerful storm system works through the region. Heavy rain and gusty winds are the name of the game today, but the focus quickly turns toward a harsh winter pattern taking shape.

Rounds of heavy rain and some thunder target the state through tonight. Most of the area picks up 1″-3″ of rain during this time, with the heaviest likely falling in central and eastern Kentucky. This opens up the potential for some local flooding issues to develop…

Here are your heavy rain tracking radars…

In addition to the heavy rain, winds may gust to 40mph at times today and tonight.

Thursday finds a cold front sweeping eastward as the cold air bleeds in from the west during the day. This is a seasonable brand of cold from Friday through the weekend, but it’s solidly colder than normal with highs in the 30s for the most part.

A few rounds of light snow and flurries will also be possible from late Friday through early Sunday. The best chance is across central and eastern Kentucky and the Canadian continues to be the one most aggressive with the light snows from Friday through early Sunday…

Let’s talk about the week leading up to Christmas and into Christmas weekend:

  • One weak system makes a run at us late Monday and Tuesday, but this likely weakens in the process. There’s a window for a little bit of light snow, but I’m not impressed.
  • I am very impressed with what I’m seeing for later next week as arctic air dives into the region.
  • For days now, I’ve been highlighting December 21-23 as a period for a potential big winter storm from the plains to the east coast. I still like this signal A LOT!
  • An arctic front is likely to crash in here next late next Wednesday or Thursday. That is likely to have low pressure developing along it.
  • There’s also the chance for this low to rapidly strengthen as it moves through and heads toward the east coast.
  • Do we get a simple wave of low pressure or do we get this thing to really wrap up into a biggie? I can’t answer that one yet, but there’s a lot of potential.
  • Odds favor accumulating snow with the setup I’m seeing. Just a little or a lot? Give me some time to work on that. 😜
  • Bitterly cold air will slam in here with this system and that will hang around through Christmas weekend and into the following week.
  • I will be curious to see if we can make a run at 0 or below.
  • Oh… Wind chills. 🥶

Operational models will continue to vary from run to run and model to model with next week. That’s how these things roll, so don’t get too excited or depressed based on any one run.

I’m ONLY looking at these models for trends. Nothing specific whatsoever.

The trend continues to be for something to develop along that arctic front later next week…

GFS

CANADIAN

The EURO continues to have big issues with next week as this whole setup plays into the bias of the model. I pointed that out with my last update, so you can go look at what I’m talking about. The latest run is trying to correct itself, but it’s still got a ways to go before it’s in the reality ballpark…

With everything extreme on the menu next week, watch for some of these models to pop a blizzard from time to time. Does NOT mean it will happen, but I bet they try to show it at least once. That would be bold, wouldn’t it?

I will have your usual updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.