Good Monday, folks. We are beginning a very busy week of weather across this entire region as a major winter storm/blizzard targets the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, with the worst of this likely to our northwest. This will be accompanied by bitterly cold temps and life-threatening wind chills for Christmas weekend.
KWC is undergoing a server upgrade, so things are a little funky with the site today. It may even give you an unsafe message, but it’s totally safe and not hacked.
Let’s get right into things.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Snow and bitter cold move into Kentucky.
The timeline for this is late Thursday through Christmas weekend.
Snow amounts aren’t even close to being figured out. The track and intensity of this system determines that, but the heaviest snow is likely northwest of Kentucky.
High winds will become a major issue. Gusts of 40mph-50mph will be possible.
Life-threatening cold temps and wind chills sweep in with this storm.
Here’s a VERY early breakdown of how this may play out:
- An arctic front moves into the Mississippi Valley Thursday. Temps likely come up just a bit in front of this with rain developing for much of the region.
- Low pressure develops on this front Thursday and Thursday night. Where this happens and the intensity of it will determine a lot of what happens at this point.
- As of now, I think this low moves into the lower Ohio Valley and strengthens rapidly as it lifts northeast.
- Bitterly cold air crashes in behind the low with a rapid change from rain to snow from west to east as temps drop more than 30-40 degrees in just an hour or two Thursday night. The forward speed of this system means we only have a short window of moderate to heavy snow right behind the front.
- With rain ahead of that much of a temp drop, a full-blown flash freeze is likely.
- That low continues to crank as it moves to the northeast of us by Friday. A comma head of wraparound light snows should be common in our area.
- Accumulating snow is likely with this setup with the greatest potential for the best snows to occur across western, central and northern Kentucky.
- I am still nor prepared to make any kind of snow forecast. As mentioned, the heaviest looks to stay just to our northwest as of now.
- Winds along and behind the track of the low will gust to 40mph-50mph across the state.
- Those winds happen as temps make a run at zero or below at some point Friday with those same lows more likely Christmas Eve morning and Christmas Morning.
- Wind chills around -20 will be possible during this time.
With the site undergoing a server upgrade, I can’t get the normal model animations to load. The GFS went farther west while the Canadian and Euro Models held similar to their earlier runs.
This will be quite the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes blizzard with the greatest chance of that occurring to our west and north…
The famed winter weather expert from The Weather Channel chimed in and also sees the similarities of this storm with the blizzard of 1978…
Is it time for comparisons yet?? With the caveat that there are still lots of uncertainties in the details…why not!! #winter #blizzard pic.twitter.com/jAiuuiOdLg
— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) December 19, 2022
What most folks around here forget is that Kentucky didn’t get much snow from the Blizzard of 78. Most of us only got a few inches with the wind and cold being a much greater deal with that particular storm.
The wrapround snow in the bitter cold is really something for us to watch Friday into Christmas Eve morning…
With bitterly cold temps, it won’t take much moisture to produce snow and light snow that can add up and cause big travel issues.
That cold air also means whatever snow you get will be around for Christmas. ❄️🎄🎅
Ok… Hang tight with the blog upgrade today. I’ll be back with updates. Have a good one and take care.
for the future: so the next time someone says the storm will get suppressed because of the bitter cold… remember….the northwest trend can still happen…Maybe what’s keeping it from being suppressed is the sheer strength of it??? I’m not a met… Just a guess.
Several things..Short wave to far West..To me the biggest problem was no confluence to our North..TPV needed to be East but lifted out North and NW..In other words no surface pressure..Gonna take the path to less resistance so it cuts.. Just my take..Maps are confusing sometimes..Lol
Yep. Just as I figured…heaviest snowfall to stay northwest. By Thursday this will prob be a minor event for WKY. Already missing out on the wraparound.
Hey Russell… being jaded isn’t going to change mother nature…I guess we should all be allowed to vent though…
For the cold air to be coming that far south and the pressure to create these winds, seems the snow would be part of it further east and more south. Key word is “seems”, so looks like the current trend is 40 MPH snow globe snow. Probably for the better, since not a lot you can do with lots of snow, if that cold. Kind of like cement. The folks up north who are “used” to it, can deal with it 😉
Shaping up to be a nothing-burger..except the cold..Like Russel don’t see any wrap around snow now..Guess from the shift west winds have come down also..Still can change so we wait..Going with the Euro..Lol..
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022121900&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ov&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full
Also hope model’s are right for new year’s..60 degrees..We take..
Out of all the possibilities I thought the storm could track the last ideal on my table was a Great Lakes cutter.
Oh well it is probably for the best.
From my vantage point in South Central Kentucky, I’m expecting a cosmetic snow, but what concerns me is the flash freeze. A 30° to 40° drop in one hour is a big deal. Put an inch or two of snow on top of that and you’re talking a travel nightmare that will continue for several days. Brining the roads beforehand won’t help because the rain will wash it away. Don’t plan travel on Friday unless absolutely necessary, and as they used to say on Hill Street Blues, “You be careful out there!”
You’re correct a flash freeze with a 1/2” of snow over top of the ice is more dangerous than driving on 3” of dry snow.
there going be a general 3-6 inches folks, patence by guns n roses.
The forecast map that CB has on this post has the Chicago area right smack dab in the middle of a high threat for a blizzard. The Chicago NWS, in its forecast discussion, is already warning for the blizzard potential along with the extreme and bitter cold for Christmas Weekend.
This morning was the coldest of the season so far here. When I got out of work at 7:30 AM, it was 10 degrees, but with little or no wind. Still around a half-inch of snow on the ground from the snow showers of last Thursday through Saturday.
I remember the blizzard of 1978 starting out the same as this storm with warm temperatures and rain and then the bottom fell out. This also was the first time I ever heard thunder snow. Not much snow but wind, cold and drifts made it bad.
Thanks Chris, This storm may are may not produce Blizzard conditions, but still not to be taken lightly. We have an early prediction of only 3 inches of Snow here in Maple and the winds could meet a Blizzard’s criteria. I’m hoping it doesn’t as I went through the Blizzard of 1978 which occurred on January 25 if memory serves. Where I was in Indiana we had an estimated amount of 10 inches of Snow and wind gust greater than 50 mph. The next morning the air temperature was 10 below zero. Don’t remember the wind chill, maybe -20 ? We also had a 20 foot Snowdrift in our driveway and Highway 41 was closed and the National Guard was called on to rescue stranded Folks and to clear the main roads.
The Blizzard of 1978 was not predicted until late afternoon the very night it arrived. Very different from the current Blizzard that may happen in two ways. El Nino was the phase in place, not like this years La Nina. Two, it was a phased storm. Upper level low collided with a surface low coming out of the gulf. Record low barometric pressures were set as the phased low entered the State of Michigan. This was the only blizzard I experience and I hope the last ?
Best White Christmas was in 2004. Two feet of Snow on the ground that Christmas Morning.