Good afternoon, gang. A developing winter storm and severe arctic blast continues to take aim at the Bluegrass state over the next few days and into Christmas Weekend. Some of the lowest wind chill numbers you’ll ever see will be introduced by a wind driven snow.
Governor Andy Beshear has declared a State of Emergency for Kentucky in anticipation of the snow and brutal cold. I’m continuing with the Winter Storm Threat for this update, but a likely upgrade to ALERT should come later today.
I REALLY hope the NWS offices in our region all go with Winter Storm Warnings to raise awareness as to what’s to come. It’s hard to believe these offices seem to be going out of their way to downplay this event, which is absolutely THE wrong message.
Here’s the updated breakdown of what to expect:
THURSDAY
- Showers develop across much of the region, but it may start as a bit of a mix.
- Winds kick in from the southwest as temps spike ahead of the arctic front.
- Most of us hit the middle and upper 40s and may even reach 50 degrees
- The arctic front enters far western Kentucky by the late afternoon. Snow quickly breaks out behind the front.
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT
- The arctic front races eastward very quickly as low pressure develops along it. The timing on this front should be between Interstate 65 and Interstate 75 during the evening then into eastern Kentucky after midnight.
- Temps drop 30-40 degrees in an hour or two. Given everything will be wet before this happens, a massive flash freeze will take place.
- Rain rapidly changes to snow behind the front. An increasing band of moderate to heavy snow is likely.
- Winds gust to 40mph will be likely creating whiteout conditions for a 2-4 hour period right behind the front.
- Travel conditions will be absolutely awful during and after this period of snow.
- Temps bottom out into the 0 to -5 range for much of the state by Friday morning.
- Wind chills reach -25 and could push -30 in the north.
FRIDAY
- The period of snow behind the front moves away during the morning.
- After a break with flakes, wraparound snow globe light snows should then kick in during the afternoon and evening as the storm cranks to our north.
- Travel conditions will be ugly during this time.
- Winds will continue to gust to 40mph-50mph at times. Blowing snow may be an issue.
- Temps likely stay in the single digits for most of the state.
- Wind chills may drop as low as -25.
FRIDAY NIGHT
- The wraparound snows will pull away, but travel continues to look rather ugly.
- Temps make a run at 0 or below.
- Wind chills will continue to run in the -10 to -20 degree range.
CHRISTMAS EVE
- A few flurries or a snow shower will be around.
- Gusty winds slowly come down.
- Temps stay in the upper single digits to mid teens for highs.
- Wind chills hang in the -5 to -15 range.
CHRISTMAS DAY
- A couple of flurries will be possible.
- Highs from the middle teens to low 20s.
- Wind chills from -10 to 5.
So how much snow can fall? I’m keeping the First Call map until I get to work and can dig through some more data…
That 3″-6″ line is likely to get dropped farther south and east.
The forecast models continue to show the period of moderate to heavy snow right behind the arctic front. Here’s the future radar from the Hi Res NAM…
If we look at the NAM, you can see this second low popping and running from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia…
That’s why the NAM Fam is forecasting higher snow totals across central and eastern Kentucky than they are in the west…
The GFS continues to spit out the most widespread and heaviest snow numbers…
The EURO is doing exactly what we said it would… Correcting slower and farther south and east…
All models are forecasting temps to below zero on Friday morning…
The HRRR has numbers down to -10 to -15, but I’m not biting on that just yet.
Wind chills can be near -30 by Friday morning and those wind chills stay well below zero through Christmas Weekend…
I will likely drop by for a mid-afternoon update and will be on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.
Have a good one and take care.
Really crazy that NWS Louisville hasn’t upgraded central KY to a winter storm watch. Although they have at least put the wind chill watch up. But they haven’t issued a winter weather advisory either, so they may be waiting one or two more runs to make the decision. With the temps falling so rapidly with ample moisture in place, this will start as a wet snow but very quickly turn to high ratio fluffy snow. Forecast for my area is still for less than a half inch of snow where all the models are now forecasting greater than 3 inches.
I agree Chris. They need to upgrade.
I went CRAZY for awhile by ken mellons afternoon song.
Chris even know I’m out of your range to watch your forecast, this the reason I get on here and read your blog that’s I can relied on. Thank you for all you do
Winter Lover you can receive Chris’s live forecast on your computer just google ” watch live wkyt news. “
Thanks Schroeder
Well it came out as I expected….WKY only has a wimpy weather advisory for snow up to two inches. Another bust.
Two inches of Snow Russel is enough for our part of the World. The cold that’s coming is the main story. I just hope I can make it through Christmas with all my health issues. Plenty of chances for that Big Snow are down the road.
Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for much of IL from Thursday morning through Saturday morning. Snowfall totals are “only” going to be in the 3 to 5 inch range for the Chicago area, but the strong winds up to 50 MPH will create blizzard conditions and very low visibility. Of course, there’s going to be the brutal cold and wind chills to deal with also during that time.
LOL, it seems nobody has a good bead on this yet. Could be ironic that Kentucky gets as much as other areas to the north, that were showing upper double digits just a day or two ago.
Yeah, the Ventusky HRRR had us here in Maple receiving almost 8 inches of snow the other day.
Something still does not add up. The bigger snow to our north makes sense and the system flowing a bit more south and east makes sense. Will be interesting how this pans out. Perhaps we either under, or over-perform, with little middle ground 😉
Winter Storm Watch should be issued here NOW ! A Winter Storm Warning LATER !
Well my sister about 2 hours from Louisville in Indiana is under a winter storm warning for 3 – 6 inches I believe and they are getting the cold and wind too. Here in the tropic’s we are at 51. Maybe we all get a little snow.
Crystal, Pikeville may get additional Snow from Lake Michigan if the wind is just right.
I hope so Schroeder. I enjoy reading your post.