The Ensembles are still adamant on a deep trough taking over…
That orientation will continue to feature an active southern storm track!
If you notice, I’m not using the GFS very much. We know the model has issues, but it’s currently last among all models in skill scores. It’s THAT bad, folks.
I’ll have another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris, I agree 100% that the GFS model has some serious issues. I still think that Winter weather is going to regain either later this month or in February and last through March ? I’m glad we are having our timely rains here lately to replenish the soils.
Chris, thanks so much for your weather blog and forecasting. We appreciate your dedication and professional information/opinions.
The very frigid Arctic air is currently locked up in Siberia. The AO is running slightly negative and the NAO is currently positive. Here in the lower 48 we have a fast zonal flow bringing mild and rainy weather. Hoping the severe weather stays away as we slowly come out of this ENSO / La Nina pattern and hopefully change to ENSO / neutral in February or March ?