Good Tuesday, everyone. A winter storm is working toward the region and will bring rain and a a thumping snow for some tonight and early Wednesday. That’s followed up by rain that changes to light accumulating snow for the second half of the week. Shew!
A few quick thoughts:
- We are walking a very fine line tonight between a thumping snow and rain across the northern half of the state into parts of western Kentucky.
- A few hours of heavy snow may very well show up tonight in these areas. The southern edge of this is going to be a gametime decision.
- The southern half of the state is pretty much all rain.
- Even areas in the north change to rain early Wednesday as the low moves in and temps spike.
- As the low goes by Wednesday evening, light snow kicks in from northwest to southeast.
- Rounds of light snow will kick in for Wednesday night through Thursday night. Light accumulations are a good bet with snow days possible.
- A few snow showers linger into Friday morning.
Here’s my rough estimate on how things play out tonight and early Wednesday…
I’m going to do a lot of work on that through the day as this system, hopefully, comes into better focus.
As far as the models go, the GFS is the most amped up along the Ohio River and into northern Kentucky…
The NAM is in the same ballpark…
The Canadian Family has an interesting band of snow farther south and east…
The EURO is kind of a tweener…
The model that’s the weakest with snow in Kentucky? The Hi Res NAM…
Whatever snow falls, it’s going to be wet!
After the rain, that switch back to light snow for everyone…
This is all part of a pattern thats STRONGLY skewing cold and active as we get ready to close out January and enter February. I’ve already talked about how the late winter look was reminiscent of of the same look at this time in 2021 and the models are all locking in.
Check out the temperature departures from normal setting up…
These systems will likely be accompanied by storm systems as the active storm track slides south and east from where it is now…
I will have updates through the day, so check back. Until then, here are your radars to follow the system in from the southwest…
Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.
I was never bullish on heavy snowfall from this system.
But I am surprise that the system doesn’t have more snow being involved at its initial stage.
I guess it doesn’t matter anyway because it would probably be all melted by late afternoon.
Severe weather along the gulf Coast may take some energy away from this storm.
We have sleet forecast for Maple. Not interesting. Nothing to track here in South Central Kentucky, so I’ll track the storm as it may bring heavy Snow through Central and Northern Indiana. Backside flurries and light Snow before ending is not interesting. As of this morning the ‘ Southeast Ridge ‘ is still controlling our weather.
Hoping that dry Arctic air stays in Siberia. I think it will as the AO and the NAO are forecast to go positive at the beginning of the new month.
Rain train blah!
Russell, I think its getting close RIP Winter
Note: A Louisville met reported on Twitter last night that Louisville is running about 10 degrees above normal in January.
Looking into the future or the beginning of February even with the tame colder air Kentucky will still be on the fence.
In my area I believe the average temperature so far is running normal for January. With precipitation above normal. This is what we needed after that dry late Summer and Fall.