Good evening, folks. Better weather is slowly taking control of our weekend weather, but the focus is on a very busy pattern next week. Two big storm systems are on the way. Both of these may cause issues from different aspects of the weather.
The system for Monday continues to look like a high wind maker with the threat for a few severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center continues with a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms in central and eastern Kentucky…
Damaging wind is the primary threat from this broken line of storms I expect to develop.
With or without severe storms, high winds will be a player. Gusts of 50mph-60mph will be possible…
Once this system blows through, some decent weather is back for Tuesday into much of Wednesday.
The late week setup has a concerning look for our region. It’s likely to be a major storm system loaded with moisture and that means the track of the low will be everything.
I expect a weaker system to move through here Wednesday night and Thursday, producing some decent rains for some. The main low then cranks across the lower Mississippi Valley and slowly rides northeastward. This will have cold air available to tap on the north and western side of the low.
Here’s the skinny on this storm… Areas along and east/south of the track of the low may see heavy rain and flooding issues develop. Areas along and north/west of the low may see a thumping snow.
The GFS continues to show a potent storm system…
It’s giving us the typical deviations in the track and that will continue for several more days.
The EURO is looking similar to the GFS, but is a tad east…
The Canadian Model has a farther southeast track…
That model has been all over the place with this storm.
As we get ready to go into March, let me make a few things clear. We are likely seeing a colder than normal month with much above normal precipitation. There’s a real shot for our part of the world to pick up flooding rains and some decent snows. As a matter of fact, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where March gives many of us more snow than we’ve had this entire winter.
I will take a deeper dive into March later tonight and Sunday.
Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.
So basically everything has to aligned perfectly for a descent snowfall.
Then again the more opportunities we have the better chance that one of these systems will have a white breakout.
Thanks Chris. Your last paragraph with predictions of a colder than normal March. I agree 100%.
Interesting read from CPC.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
Great read. Thanks for sharing. Looking like the PDO may turn positive and the emergence of ENSO / El Nino for next Fall and Winter. Hope this all pans out and we get on the Snow action.