Good Monday, everyone. March is quickly running out of days as we flip the calendar to April this coming weekend. This flip is likely to be accompanied by a big storm system that may bring high winds and the threat for severe weather back to the region.
In the overall scheme of things, the pattern I see taking shape is one that can bring plenty of severe weather threats for April.
Let’s begin with what’s going on out there today. We have a weak front working through the region and it’s bringing chillier air behind it. It also has a scattering of showers and isolated storms with it. Those will show up on your friendly radars…
Temps today are mainly in the 50s for everyone but the south and southeast.
Chilly winds are with us for Tuesday and Wednesday as the numbers continue to run well below normal. Keep in mind… 60s are the normal highs for the final week of March.
A disturbance passing through late Tuesday and Tuesday night may touch off a shower or two and there’s even the possibility of a flake in the high elevations of southeastern Kentucky…
Milder winds kick in for Thursday as temps return to the 60s. Southwest winds will increase during this time as we wait for a potent storm system to roll from the Plains toward the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. This puts Kentucky in line for the potential of strong to severe storms, heavy rain and more high winds…
The GFS is already spitting out widespread 50mpoh-60mph winds with this system…
Chillier winds will blow behind this system by Sunday, but a big temp spike quickly follows into early next week. That’s ahead of another potent storm system that can bring another strong to severe storms threat in here…
The setup to start the month of April looks to feature a southeast ridge that is flexing into spring mode. At the same time, winter continues to throw punches into the country with a deep trough in the west. That trough throws a few jabs to the east and that puts our region into the south in the prime zone for severe weather threats…
It’s been a minute since we’ve had a busy spring severe weather season in our region, but this year is starting out like it wants to change that narrative.
I’ll throw you another update later today. Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. The Southeast Ridge has been influencing our weather since the last El Nino phase back in 2015. Now the Ridge is in the ” Spring Mode. ” I think it’s been in the Spring and Fall Mode for several years now. More mild than cold spells during the Winter months with no defined Snowstorms. I’m hoping for a change for next Fall and Winter, but it’s too early to make that prediction.
Severe storms are becoming a weekly event. Until the Pacific surface sea temperatures warm more than they are now and the Atlantic and Gulf cool down and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation goes way positive ushering ENSO / El Nino we will be in this most tiring weather pattern.
Looks like Friday will see another in a series of week ending severe weather events, and this one be nasty, especially for areas to the west of us. Once again, this is not surprising, considering we are in the battle zone btw a warm, more humid than normal flow from the south, and unseasonably cold are to our north. I feel that we’ll be in this pattern at least through the 1st week of May.
I hope it ends in May, but my observations conclude that we may be stuck in ENSO / neutral for sometime to come.
Schroeder, with surface lows continuing to train one after another off the Pacific coast, whoch add a trigger mechanism to the mix, and dewpoints that are averaging 10-15% higher than normal are providing the fuel for rapid development. It would not surprise me to see at least one bomb cyclone develop over the next 4 weeks.
Buckle up!
Joe, the storms coming up into the Ohio valley really have me concerned. As you mentioned all factors to produce severe weather are there, and it does take a trigger to make it happen ( the Pacific energy. ) I never seen such a persistent weather pattern as we have now and before. Friday is the day for severe weather in our area. A cycle that keeps repeating. Reminds me of the “Three little Pigs ” story. ” I’ll huff and puff till I blow your house down cried the Wolf. ” )