Good Monday to one and all. We have a weak front checking up across the region today and this means issues for Election Day. With a slower moving front, a wave of low pressure develops along this boundary and brings rain and strong storms as folks head to the polls.
A few showers and storms will be on the move through the evening. This action is coming from northwest to southeast and won’t be terribly widespread. Here are your radars to track the scattered stuff…
Temps will be all over the place today with areas under any shower or storm being much cooler than folks with sun. With enough sun, your thermometer can make another run at the 80 degree mark. I’m looking at you southern Kentucky. 😎
Low pressure then scoots in here from west to east on Tuesday. This will bring an increase in showers and storms for Election Day, but this isn’t all day stuff at all. I’m going to be watching for the potential for a few clusters of strong to severe storms, especially across the southern half of the state.
Check out the future radars from the HRRR and Hi Res NAM for Tuesday…
HRRR
Hi Res NAM
Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday…
Slightly cooler and less humid air filters in behind this for Wednesday and Thursday, but our attention quickly turns toward the next front barreling in here on Friday. This could bring a few strong storms back into the region…
Colder temps come in behind that and likely take us into the week before Memorial Day Weekend.
In making the summer forecast, it’s all eyes on the developing El Nino. You can see that showing up on the current Sea Surface Temperature departures…
An El Nino developing after a 3 year La Nina has only happened once since 1950 and that was in 1976. That summer turned colder than normal. The fall was even colder in relation to normal. The winter became one of the coldest on record.
None of that means this year will even trend anything like 1976 and that’s especially true if you look at the rest of the map above. Notice how much warmer than normal water we have going on across the entire globe. That’s absolutely astounding and puts us in uncharted territory for seasonal forecasts. What impact will these warm waters have on our actual weather? Not sure I can answer that, but I do know it’s likely to be extreme with whatever form or forms it takes.
Make it a great Monday and take care.
“Colder” is likely no big deal.
The Winter weather is determine by the strength of El Nino. It would be interesting to compare the SST in the Fall of 1976 with the coming Fall 2023. From 1976 to 1979 we were in a weak El Nino phase.
Schroeder and Joe, it be interested how 2023/24 winter will pan out and Schroder and I know how the 1976 thru 1979 winters were. Will history play out again time will tell.
No way of telling how this coming El Nino will effect our Fall and Winter 2023- 2024 ???
From 1976 to 1978 was a very interesting meteorological Study. A lot has changed since then with the atmosphere and the ocean sea surface temperatures.
In the past El Nino Winters were cold and Snowy where I grew up in South Central Indiana.
Adding to the above: A lot of La Nina Winters were cold and Snowy in that area of Indiana. Doesn’t really make any difference what phase of ENSO we may be in back in those days.
There are many interconnected factors that influence seasonal weather patterns, including the 11 year solar activity. The low point for Solar Cycle #21 occurred in 1976, while the current Cycle (#25) is expected to reach peak activity during the next 6 months. This may affect the use of 1976 as a historical analog for 2023/24 Winter weather. Historical data has also shown a link between the time of year when an ENSO – Neutral to El Niño transition occurs on the level of severe weather activity. During years where the transition to El Niño began in the Spring have shown significantly higher levels of severe weather.
Finally, the amount of warmer than normal ocean temperatures displayed will almost certainly result in higher relative humidity levels globally, and provide more “fuel” for storm development, worldwide.
Solar cycles do drive the weather. No matter what phase of ENSO we are having.