Good Saturday, everybody. It’s a gorgeous day across the Commonwealth and this looks to be a gorgeous overall weekend. Pleasant temps will continue to rule the weather world before storms start to crash in by late Sunday and early next week. These storms can bring some heavy rains into the region.
Temps today range from 80-85 in the west to the upper 70s and low 80s across central and eastern Kentucky. Humidity is low and the skies are sunny with just a hint of smoke. Enjoy!
Sunday finds clouds increasing with temps in the low to middle 80s for most of the state. Some late day showers and storms will move into the far west and then overspread the region into early next week.A few strong storms can’t be ruled out and there’s the chance for some heavy rain totals for some through Tuesday. Some high water concerns may show up as these storms spin around the low.
Here’s the NAM from Sunday night through 8am Tuesday…
The Canadian and GFS are similar, but have the usual placement issues…
CANADIAN
GFS
How long does that upper low spin into our region? That’s the million dollar question as the models are having a titanic struggle with this. Odds favor this sinking south a bit for the middle of the week with a late week return to the north.
Looking down the weather road toward the end of the month and into the start of July, the models continue to advertise a trough across the eastern half of the country. The operational models only go through early in the week of the 26th and you can see that trough ready to dig back in…
EURO
CANADIAN
The various Ensembles agree with this line of thinking and keep that trough around into the opening of July…
GFS ENSEMBLES
EURO ENSEMBLES
That would give us additional cooler than normal temps on average and should result in additional storm threats.
As far as the tropics go, we have that system WAAAAAY out in the tropical Atlantic that’s likely to develop…
There’s the chance that system could, at least, make a run at the east coast in 10-12 days or so from now.
Enjoy your Saturday and take care.
I’m not buying any long range ensemble or model.
Not buying any model forecast either. Take the weather as it comes. One day at a time.
Those who believe in long range models, here’s the latest on the drought and drought forecast for the Summer :
https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/climate/drought/Drought_briefing.pdf
We’re having a typical winter type jet stream during the summer. How long can it last only time will tell.
A Louisville Met reported yesterday that Louisville is only 1.1 degrees below normal.
Also the oceans recorded the warmest May temperatures in history.
I hope the rainfall plays out I am well below normal rainfall totals for the year.
No telling what the rest of the Summer will be like. I wouldn’t even try to make a guess.
Great weather with above normal temps are in the forecast for the Chicago Metro Area this coming week, with sunny skies and highs predicted to be in the upper 80s daily with very little chance of rain, as our developing drought continues to take hold across the region.
I am getting concerned about the drought. Back in 1987 to 1990 we had a very severe widespread drought in the eastern US. In this morning NWS discussion, Rex Block was mentioned, and I haven’t heard this meteorological term since the late 1980’s. Today it is absolutely beautiful though. Just hope it Rains next week. It’s predicted to.
Looking at the Weather Cams a minute ago, the only place in the State that still has that nice ” Spring look ” is Pikeville. Other areas, along the highways are completely brown. If widespread Rains don’t materialize next week, there may be a ” Red Flag Warning ” issued in many parts of the State.