Good Sunday, everyone. A slow-moving storm system will work across the region over the next few days and will bring the potential for heavy rainfall. This setup is a bit concerning as repeat torrential rain producing storms may cause flash flooding for some.
Let’s give a shoutout to all the dads out there on this Father’s Day. Mother Nature is giving us all a nice looking day with increasing clouds and temps in the low to middle 80s for many.
The first rounds of showers and storms will get into western Kentucky later today into the evening. A few of these may be strong and the Storm Prediction Center even has a low-end risk for a few severe storms in the far west today…
I’m concerned about the setup from tonight through Tuesday as our slow-moving storm system spins into Kentucky and slows down even more. The end result will be spiraling bands of showers and thunderstorms working around the center of this low pressure.
If we look into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, we can see this is one healthy system that has an eye-like feature…
Folks, that’s incredible to see something like that this time of year.
Combine that spin with Precipitable Water values approaching 2″ and you can get some serious rain producing bands of showers and storms going up.
Here’s the area I’m currently targeting for the greatest threat for too much rain…
Several inches of rain will be possible for some areas through Tuesday night.
Showers and storms won’t be as common on Wednesday as the low focuses farther to the south. Moisture looks to return Thursday into the weekend and that means more rounds of showers and storms.
The GFS and EURO are in good agreement on this…
EURO
GFS
Temps look to average below normal through the rest of the month, at least.
I will likely drop by for another update later today so check back. As usual, you’re all set to track the action in from the west…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Have a sensational Sunday and take care.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
It’s about time.
I only hope flooding isn’t an issue.
Well lets give it that chance, but I have my doubts. I read that the current ‘ Rex Blocking Pattern ‘ may break down later in the week. I hope so, as this may increase our chances for afternoon and evening showers. Our normal Summer weather type.
We sorely need this rain in central Warren County, but I am also taking a wait and see attitude, as the precip forecast track record for recent months has been abysmal. During the past 27 days, my personal weather station just south of Bowling Green has recorded only 0.16″ of rain!
Even the rain pans out and as dry the ground is I don’t see flash flooding will be a issue again I could be wrong
The creeks and rivers are way below for what they should be this time of the year, so I’m not to concerned about ” Flash Flooding. ” The various models have been over playing weather events for so long I don’t pay much attention anymore. A wait and see game.
WPC keeps bumping up totals, that can’t be a bad thing
Here is the link for the complete summary of the ongoing drought conditions in the Midwest. https://weather.gov/lot/drought
Most of Kentucky is either abnormally dry (D0) or in a moderate (D1) drought. Only Eastern Kentucky is not experiencing drought conditions. Hopefully you guys will get all the rain that’s being predicted in the next few days.
Here in IL, the situation is considerably worse, especially over NE IL and the Chicago area. Over 99 percent of the state is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions, with a moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought occurring over all of the Chicago Metro Area.
Unlike Kentucky, no rain is in the forecast here in the Chicago area for at least the next five days.
As of today my area of Kentucky is in a Moderate Drought. My neighbors, and there are very few have to worry about the Wildfire potential and their wells running dry. Also the local County Water, which I am lucky to have may experience Water shortages. Mike, we all hope you receive some Widespread Rains soon.