Good afternoon everyone. Our Saturday is shaping up to be a nice one and i’m using it to sniff out our next wintry threats over the next few weeks. Well… that and watching college football. 
A monster of a Halloween weekend winter storm is rolling up the east coast and I thought it would be fun to throw you guys some live cams to watch it.
Northern Virginia
Gettysburg, PA
Harrisburg, PA
Allentown, PA
New York/New Jersey Line
East Orange, NJ
White Plains, NY
New York City
Hartford, CT
Are you guys jealous yet? If so… don’t worry, your time is coming this winter and it may be sooner than you think. 
Have a great Saturday and take care.
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Got a big trip to The Smokies! Leaving the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. Please don’t tell me that I won’t be able to get there.
I’m soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo jealous!
TEASE, TEASE, TEASE ….. Oh so early in the season for all this snow teasing!! LOL at this rate by March we’ll all need a trip to the Bahama’s
Just like blizzardtim wrote, you ARE such a TEASE!!! Any more info about your winter conference that you were considering?
Would anyone mind telling me why the GFS is showing flurries over central KY on Halloween? The past several runs have hinted at them. Light green with the 540 line below us…just curious…
I would not be surprised if western mass and western connecticut go under a possible Blizzard Warning this evening Im sure the boys of NOAA are contemplating this thought in interior Mass and Connecticut the winds will be more than sufficient and judging by the trends on radar and live shots from TWC the snow is coming down at a rapid rate. This low is going to have a hayday its really winding up now and the ocean temps are still in the 60’s. Its a all you can eat buffet for this Nor’easter
The GFS is not showing flurries on Halloween in central KY. The 540 line may be below us, but surface temperatures will be in the mid-upper 40s as the system swings through.
MJ I am an ametur model reader and have always thought 540 to be the freezing line at the surface? how do you determine that by looking at the models?
The 540 line generally IS the freezing line, but, it’s at 850 millibars which is about 5,000 feet in the air. That is why personally I think it’s a total waste of time to flash 850 charts at the general public. It doesn’t amount to a hill of beans what’s going on a mile over our heads, you know? You need to use the 2M (2 meters above the surface) charts.
I sure hope this is not another start of winter of highlights of the big snows everywhere but here in KY. Just once this winter I would love a 12in. plus snow in Central KY! I know, just another jealous snow lover in snow starved KY.
The ‘850’ charts are useful for assisting in determining precip type at the 5000 ft level though.
For example, ‘850’ chart may show temps near or above freezing at that level but surface temps may be at or below freezing….therefore ice possible here at the surface.
Right… freezing rain situations, etc. you need those charts and others as well. I’m just referring to how lots of times you see mets. flash the 850 charts ONLY day after day to the public, and the public doesn’t have a clue what they are seeing. All they notice is the blue “0” line and then they think “below freezing = snow”. I personally don’t do that because it’s confusing for folks.
More information about the ‘540’ line, which is different than the ‘850’ chart.
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/97/
As others have said, I look at both surface temperatures and model thermal profiles, which are called soundings. In the soundings, I can see what the vertical distribution of temperature looks like. Honestly, I do not use 1000-500mb thicknesses for winter forecasting. Here in the OV, 1000-850 thickness (which is closer to the surface) works better. Though, I don’t think those maps are available on the internet, unless someone is producing them manually.
Actually, there are many variables that go into winter forecasting here in the OV. Thickness are nice for a quick look analysis, but interrogation of the thermal profiles is a must. Nonetheless, we have a couple of weeks to wait. The current datasets still show a pattern shift with a series of Lakes cutters through at least mid-month. Given the global pattern, that does look reasonable. It does appear that a return to cold is likely after 11/15.
They can keep the snow.I for one would love too get out of school on time for once.NO SNOW IN Eastern KY
interesting stuff, thanks folks wxman ms and mj