Good Tuesday to one and all. We are in a typical August heat spell across the Commonwealth, and this continues through the end of the week as the core of the heat stays to our west. We can still get pretty toasty, though, before a cold front crashes in this weekend.

The NWS put out Head Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings for central and western Kentucky on Monday and they really didn’t come close to verifying. Heat Advisory criteria is for heat index of 105 or greater for 3 consecutive hours. Excessive Heat Warning criteria is for a heat index of 110 or greater for 3 consecutive hours. These areas ranged from the mid 90s to low 100s at the peak of the Monday heat. Many school districts followed these forecasts and cancelled or delayed outdoor activities because of the excessive heat that didn’t verify.

The GFS temp forecasts have been beyond absurd and we have pointed this out numerous times. That said, even the GFS is starting to see more realistic solutions in the coming days.

We have a backdoor front working through the region from the north and northeast today. This brings slightly cooler temps and lower humidity into central and eastern Kentucky today and Wednesday.

Check out the today’s Heat Index numbers from the GFS…

Folks, that just says it’s August. There’s nothing excessive about that and, instead, that’s barely into Heat Advisory criteria in the west.

The GFS brings the numbers down even more on Wednesday…

Again, that’s a pretty lame excuse for anything to be called “Excessive”.

Thursday and Friday continue to look like the hottest of the week and summer and when Heat Advisories will be warranted for the entire state, but the numbers may still come up just shy of the 105 criteria for 3 straight hours.

100-105 should be noted for many Thursday…

That continues into Friday along and ahead of a cold front that you can see crashing in from the northwest…

I can’t rule out some scattered showers and storms in the east in the coming days, but the greatest storm threat comes with the arrival of the cold front Friday night and Saturday. That will be followed by much cooler weather with the potential for some showers and storms developing into the middle of next week…

This comes as the models struggle with what would be Hurricane Franklin out in the Atlantic and an upper level system closing off in our region…

EURO

CANADIAN

I mentioned Franklin and that’s the system down in the Carribean right now. We have several other systems being monitored including the storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico…

This Tropical Storm is heading toward a date with the lower Texas coast today…

Check out the sat shot of this sprawling system…

It’s a good thing this thing waited until closer to land to develop because it’s a put together little system.

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.