Good Wednesday, everyone. The heat across the region for the first half of the week has been rather underwhelming and hasn’t really shown up across the eastern half of the state. This changes for Thursday and Friday as the real deal heat surges in for a spell. Can some storms help some of us out? Maybe.
Temps today across the eastern half of the state will generally be in the 85-90 degree range for the third day in a row and that’s what we call normal. Humidity levels aren’t bad in these areas but will ramp up quickly as we get into the western half of the state. That’s where temps hit the low and mid 90s with a heat index topping 105 at times today.
The forecast for Thursday has some question marks, so let’s use a breakdown:
- The complicating factor is a round of showers and storms that may be dropping into central and eastern Kentucky. The timing and overall coverage of this plays a huge role in temps.
- If the clouds and any storm linger into the afternoon, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for some folks to stay below 90.
- Now, if this line doesn’t really show up in any form or fashion, temps will go to work.
- Without storms in central and eastern Kentucky highs reach the low and middle 90s with a heat index of 100 to 107. Again, we are walking a fine line
- Across the west, there’s a much lower chance for storms and clouds and this area is closer to the heat core to our west.
- Highs in the west are deeper into the 90s with a heat index of 105-115 possible.
If we look at a snapshot of the Hi Res NAM Future Radar, we find this line of storms dropping in and collapsing across the central and east Thursday with another line approaching Thursday night…
The Storm Prediction Center is even showing a low-end severe threat for parts of the region Thursday…
Friday is when that true southwest wind kicks in for the entire region. Barring any clouds or thunderstorms, temps in the 90s will feel like anywhere from 100 to 115 across Kentucky with the hottest in the west.
There is the potential for a few storms to go up on Friday, especially late day and into the evening. This could bring another low-end severe threat to the area…
A cold front works in on Saturday with an increase in showers and storms with a decrease in temps from north to south. This system brings a better brand of air in here and our temps from Sunday into early next week feel MUCH better.
The models have an interesting look as we get into next week. A couple of upper level systems will drop in with the second one potentially turning into a whopper of an upper low. At the same time, we find the models trying to spin up a new tropical system in the Gulf that would cross Florida and be off the east coast.
The Canadian shows this potential best…
The GFS isn’t too far behind but less threatening with the tropical system…
That makes our closing days of the month feel pretty good in our part of the world. I’m hoping that can hold through Labor Day Weekend, but the tropics will likely have a say in that.
Harold made landfall in south Texas on Tuesday and Franklin is heading through the Caribbean right now. There are a few more items of interest out in the Atlantic…
Make it a great day and take care.
The KLEX thermometer has really been showing its true colors this week now that we have two Fayette mesonets to compare it to! KLEX is 4 to 5 degrees higher during the hottest hours of the day…..but they seem to be much closer to each other during cooler temps. Weird!
Hey Mark, saw your question late yesterday about dewpoints in my area, and I am in a neighborhood with dense foliage that may influence the immediate humidity levels. My station is about 2 miles away from the Warren County Mesonet (Farm) site, and our readings are usually very close, except when heat and humidity are high. The Farm site is in an open field with no trees or dense foliage nearby, which is why their wind measurements are usually 5-10 mph higher than mine.
Excessive Heat Warnings are certainly warranted today for the entire Chicago Metro Area, as we are seeing dew points and heat indices that have not been seen since the deadly heat wave of 1995. At 12 PM CDT, the temperature at the NWS Forecast Office in Romeoville is 91 degrees, but with the humidity at 84 percent, that makes the dew point an unheard-of 86, with a Heat Index of 122!
It’s not quite as extreme at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, but still pretty darn oppressive, with a temperature of 93 degrees and humidity at 65 percent. That makes the dew point 80 with a Heat Index of 112.
Dew points are at least 80 across most of IL, and we still have the entire afternoon to go.
According to the NWS, the dew point of 80 at O’Hare Airport is the first time the dew point has reached 80 at that location since July of 1999.
Mike, higher dewpoints aren’t surprising when you consider that rising temperatires have increased the rate of evaporation, which in turn raises humidity levels and ultimately, dewpoint values. In areas where this is pronounced it can increase instability, and provide more fuel for severe storms.
In my todays local newspaper had an article talking about the 4 worst heats waves that happen here locally were 1930,1936 long before my time. The other 2 in 1988 and 2012 them two I remember how it was hot all summer long with drought both summers. Very interesting story wish I knew how put the link in. I’m old school
I hadn’t lived here long and I think 1999 here was EXTREMELY dry. I think the annual precip for that year was like 30 something inches. I remember thinking it would never rain again. I think we were in the 100s a few times too…I think the hottest it’s been since I’ve lived here was an actual temp of 106…no clue what the heat index was but I think it was the 110s. I’m so glad I live in an area where this doesn’t happen frequently like Texas is day after day after day
93° with a heat index of 100° in Richmond. Far from underwhelming.
At 4:40 pm CDT Temperature at my Central Warren County locale was 98.8°F, Dewpoint was 77.5°F, and the Heat Index was 115°F. Certainly not underperforming here!
Weather history was made today at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport, with a record high for the date of 98 degrees, breaking the old record of 97 degrees set back in 1947. The maximum Heat Index today was 116 degrees. The only time it was ever higher there was during the deadly heat wave of July 1995, when the Heat Index was 118.
Currently at the NWS Forecast Office in the SW Suburbs, about 35 miles SW of Chicago, it’s 95 degrees with a dew point of 84 and a Heat Index of 124. The fact that there’s more farm fields out here in the SW Suburbs probably explains why the humidity and dew points are higher.
So much of so call warmer climate! Smh