Good Saturday, everyone. Friday was a day, wasn’t it? Some of the highest humidity levels combined with temps in the 90s to deliver some major heat index numbers before severe storms blasted many areas. These storms continue out there today as a big cold front works in.
As this is happening, a tropical system is likely to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and may threaten Florida as a hurricane by the middle of next week. That system becomes a wild card in the overall pattern.
Ok, let’s start with what’s going on out there today.
Our cold front is slowly moving through the state and is essentially parallel from west to east for much of the day. Temps behind this are much better across the northern half of the state but are still toasty across the southern half with some low 90s possible if you get enough sun.
Waves of showers and thunderstorms will also target the region today and there’s still the possibility of a few strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center shows the main threat across the southern half of the state…
A few leftover showers will be around on Sunday, especially early. Temps will come way down across the entire state. Highs should generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s for many.
The pattern from here will be dictated by what happens with the system developing in the Gulf. It’s one of several systems being monitored by the National Hurricane Center right now…
Let’s focus on the Gulf threat and the outside possibility this may directly affect our region. Here’s a look at the system churning away between Cuba and the Yucatan…
The recent trend is for a stronger and slightly farther westward tracking system with landfall toward the Florida Pennisula before turning more inland toward the Carolinas. Here are the spaghetti plots which show the individual tracks from the various hurricane models…
The GFS Ensembles spaghetti plots are also a bit west and more inland…
Y’all know my thoughts on the GFS this summer… It’s pretty much garbage. Right now, it’s the only model bringing this system all the way into the Bluegrass state…
The chances of that happening aren’t zero, obviously, but it would be nice to see some other models show something similar before we get too excited.
The Canadian Model matches up with the spaghetti plots in keeping this system rolling northeast toward the Carolinas…
This certainly gives us something to watch in the coming days as temps come down to normal and below into the first half of next week. This is NOT an early start to fall, though. Summer has a little more sizzle left in the tank for the first half of September! 🤬
I leave you with your storm tracking tools for the day…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Have a sensational Saturday and take care.
You won’t hear me complain about a September sizzle. 😉
At 5:11 pm CDT, MY PWS just south of Bowling Green reported a Temperature of 98.6°F, the Dewpoint was 83.3°F, and the Heat Index was a flat-out dangerous 126.9°F. The thunderstorms that rumbled through Eastern and Central Kentucky never made it into my neck of the woods and we could certainly have used the rain, as we haven’t recorded a drop in over 13 days.
The tropics remain active, but the strengthening El Niño’s effect on the trade winds has increased shear in the Western Atlantic and eastern Caribbean, sparing the coastal US..
We were lucky to get the rain. I think it kept our heat down. Joe those temps and heat index is unreal. Is this the highest temperature and heat index you have ever saw?? I guess all eyes now are on the tropics and the gulf.
Yeah Crystal, that’s the highest I’ve seen, but extreme seems to be a word we’ve used more and more over the past few years. I kinda miss when it took a day to pick up an inch or two of off and on rain, instead of an inch in 20 minutes. Things are getting crisp around here, as it’s going on 12 days since we’ve had a drop of rain in central Warren County. From the weather point of view, we certainly live in interesting times!
I saw that the official high in Bowling Green Friday was 99 degrees, so your PWS pretty much matches up with the official thermometer they use to record the temps in Bowling Green.
Interesting to note that despite the intense heat of the past few days, Bowling Green is still 1.1 degrees below normal for the month!
We were fortunate. Weather sirens went off and we had a NWS warning of large hail. Didn’t see any, thankfully. However, our PWS recorded 100 minutes of precipitation yielding 1.06” of moisture in our yard, accompanied by a drop in temperature of 23 degrees. Sat on the porch to watch & listen until the blowing rain forced us inside. Not sure how the fauna enjoyed all that, but the flora this morning looks distinctly happy.
I needed the rain but I didn’t need to lose my electric again.
I have been in the dark numerous times this year.
At least the temperature will be comfortable today.
If I ever move again I am moving to an area that has underground electric. Number 1 priority.