Breaking Down The Week Ahead and Beyond

Good Monday, everyone. It’s a brand new week but a familiar temperature pattern is hanging around for much of it. Pleasant temps will be the normal as a mainly dry weather rolls on. This may change by the weekend as we go into a much more active setup for the closing 10 days of the month.

Today starts with low clouds and a touch of fog across central and eastern Kentucky. There’s still the threat for a shower or two early on across the eastern half of the state. Here are your radars just in case…

Temps generally range from 70-75 but a few upper 60s will be possible in the east.

Tuesday is mainly low and middle 70s with a mix of sun and clouds once again. Temps then start to come up a bit with mid 70s to low 80s for the middle and end of the week. Skies will once again be on the dry side with a nice breeze kicking in.

An upper-level low is spinning to our southeast over the next few days and this will spawn a healthy low that rides up the east coast. This has the chance to bring some clouds in here by late week with an even smaller chance for a shower in the east.

As this system rolls up the eastern seaboard, it opens the door for another system to roll in from the west. The evolution of this is still a work in progress, but a stout closed upper level low is a good possibility this weekend into the first part of next week…

That happens as we revert back to a pattern that features blocking across Canada with troughs trapped underneath into our region. That’s when things could turn active with some waves of rain kicking in…

In recent weeks, I’ve talked some about the developing El Nino and the state of the oceans across the globe so I thought we would do a little compare and contrast with last year at this time.

In the image below, I’ve highlighted the blossoming El Nino…

You can clearly see the warmer than normal waters showing up along the equatorial Pacific. Now, let’s look at this same region one year ago…

These same waters were much cooler than normal as we were in the final year of a 3 year La Nina. Both maps show above normal water temps for much of the rest of the world, but this year shows even warmer waters compared to last year at this same time.

What does it all mean for the winter ahead? That’s the million dollar question but it is a totally different Pacific Ocean from what led to the lousy winter of last year.

Have a great Monday and take care.


  1. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing

    Not a bad forecast. Although I could use a little rain.
    I have had to put my water sprinkler back into action.

  2. Schroeder

    Complicated and confusing forecast in the short term and long term. If the Atlantic is active with Tropical Storms, how could El Nino be a player ? For the last three years we have had a negative PDO, which is what we have during La Nina. Now NOAA is still beating the drum on El Nino for this Winter, but the PDO is still strongly negative how could this be ? Maybe the PDO later this Winter will flip to the positive and then we may have the full impacts of El Nino. Don’t Know.

    • JoeDfromBG

      Schroeder, we can have an El Niño phase and an Atlantic hurricane season, what happens is the hurricanes develop normally, but effects of El Niño on the trade winds will steer those storms northward, or shear will diminish the storm’s intensity.
      I believe that the PDO has become less of an indicator for an El Niño phase, because of the warmer Pacific water temperatures.

      • Schroeder

        Joe, In 2014 – 15 we had a weak El Nino with a positive PDO. In 2015 – 16 we had a very strong El Nino with a positive PDO. These Winters were Cold and Snowy by Kentucky standards. It’s going to be interesting to see how this Winter’s El Nino plays out without a positive PDO ? New Normal I guess.

  3. MarkLex

    I had no clue droughts damaging foundations was even a thing….I’m not seeing ANYONE watering their area around the foundation.

    • JoeDfromBG

      Mark, for my son who lives in the San Antonio, Texas area, watering foundations is part of home ownership, and many have resorted to placing drip watering hoses around their home’s foundations. San Antonio has had over 60 days this year where the temperature hit or exceeded 100°F! The heat has changed the characteristics of the concrete itself.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing

      Mulch around the foundation should take care of the problem.
      There is nothing I can do in my backyard because my concrete patio is attached to my brick foundation.

      • Schroeder

        Use Cypress Mulch if you haven’t any plantings. It is toxic to plants as it decomposes because it contains the Cypress Cambium.

        • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing

          I know black mulch is notorious for breading Termites. Fortunately my ground foundation is composed of mortar.

    • Schroeder

      I never heard of that either Mark, watering the foundation of a home. I would water around the home to save my plants. Learn something new everyday.

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