Good Monday evening. Things remain on track for a winter storm to impact the bluegrass state with rain to snow Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Some quick thoughts:
– Rain arrives overnight into Tuesday morning. It could begin as a touch of sleet or a mix in the north and east.
– Heavy rain will carry us through Tuesday as temps spike toward 50 across the south and east by midday. Cold air will sweep into western parts of the state with a transition to snow during the afternoon.
– A bit of a lull in the precipitation is likely during the evening hours before wraparound snow swings in from the north and northwest. A band of moderate to heavy snow is possible by Wednesday morning and that’s likely to lead to accumulations. Here’s the NAM…
– A light snowfall looks to be in the cards. Early thinking is for 1″-3″ for much of central and eastern Kentucky. I should have a fist call map out later tonight.
Make it a great evening and take care.
Thanks, Chris. Looks like our snowless streak continues. Maybe we will get surprised! Not likely but one can always hope. 😉
This looks to be Old Man Winter’s last push for possible accumulating snow for the rest of the season, just one last burst and that will likely be the last, and then maybe flurries for the rest of the month. Hope its an overachiever? Once this is done, I’m likely to go straight to spring mode. Meh.
Looks very interesting Chris!! Looking forward to seeing the “first call” map out later tonight.
Next season just record the 1st weather event and just replay it and take some earned time off as with every event this yr its rain backside snow 1-3 for central and eastern flurries for the rest 😉
My guess is that (to some degree) has crossed his mind.
Thanks, Chris. Bring on da’ snow!
We appreciate all your work and your great attitude.
The low looks to head farther south as of now and the snow threat for Ohio is diminishing on the latest run. We shall see.
It looks like the same snow map I have seen the whole winter season. I just saw a Louisville met forecast, he has the high Wed. at 38. This sums up the entire winter pattern there is never enough cold air to complete the deal. I cannot wait to see snowflakes hit the ground and melt on contact.
To my untrained eye it looks as if the new NAM is rapidly intensifying much sooner and closer allowing the cold air to catch more moisture closer to KY, creating a good backlash snow event for central and east KY.
Where is the Rolocoaster? The ride was started but not finished.
Mr. B., your latest tweet is such a tease.
Rolo, where art thou, Rolo. We need some goat magic!
That is the fun. Do they usually pan out- nope, but still fun to read. That said, pretty sad the models flip flop a day out from the event. Problem is they flop about 99.99% of the time for us.
The ride was closes for seasonal adjustments.
Anyone have a link to the latest Nam run?
The last 24 hours the models have been slowly trending to more snow for central and eastern Ky
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&cycle=00&image=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_p60.gif
Here is the new NAM QPF output. I’ve not seen a snowfall map yet.
Here it is peeps. That latest nam snowfall map. http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gif
ok its the NAM, who has gone APE POOO more than i can count in last few years like this, BUT reaSON Bailey gets excited is the NAM used to be the MAN as far as short range goes, 48 hours etc or am I wrong.
that said CALyy the BILLYGOAT says, NAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa to what the NAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM is showing.
but like many here said when we ever do get a thumper it going be a GOMER PYLE special..
SUPRISE!!SUPRISE!!SUPRISE!!!
now if overnite runs of EURO/GFS start trending towards NAM then u can get ready for it, see what u done BAILEY, u got ole ROLO cut loose looking at MODELS again, havnt look at a model in 2 months till bout 35 min ago..lolllllllllllllllllllllll
its like EF HUTTON, when BAILEY speaks everybody listens!!!!
After the numerous and consistant false alarms the NAM has given all winter, it should be apparent to anyone who keeps up here that no one should put any faith into it and that the Euro is the only somewhat reliable model.
GFS not near as strong, BUT also shifted snow south as well.
WSTORM WARNING go up for NORTHERN/NE KY I say.
at least the CINCY AREA OHIO Border counties.
1 64 cooridor north/ east NWEST has shot at several inxhes of snow, and the HIGHER TOPS in SE KY, the usual places BLACK MT etc…