Good Sunday to one and all. We have a fantastic Sunday to wrap up the weekend, but the potential is there for widespread frost in many areas tonight and Monday morning. After that, it’s game on toward a mild setup before things take a big turn.
We have a mix of sun and clouds out there today with temps ranging from 55-60 in the east and low to mid 60s west.
With dry air in place, expect a quick temp drop this evening and that sets the stage for Monday morning frost for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Readings in the low and middle 30s will be common, but some pockets of upper 20s may show up in the valleys.
Milder winds then kick in and will take us through the week ahead. We will see an extended run of temps hitting the 70s starting Tuesday and that may take us into the end of the week and, potentially, the weekend.
A couple of cold fronts slide in here with the threat for some showers by Thursday and Friday with another threat over the weekend. The main shot of cold likely won’t show up until Monday or Halloween and then take us through week one of November.
The slower arrival is because of Hurricane Tammy and the slow meandering back toward the west in the week ahead. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…
The Hurricane Models are taking hooking this thing back to the west…
The GFS Ensembles are as well…
That’s the scenario I talked about a few days ago as being a possibility and would slow down the arrival of the main blast of cold. Make no mistake about it, this air is cold as it spills from the Rockies into the east.
Here’s the Canadian showing the cold reaching us by October 30th into Halloween…
The GFS is about one day later with the arrival. The model goes out longer than the Canadian so you can see the cold through November 4th…
The first 5 days of November on the GFS look like this…
I do NOT think that’s an indication of a fast start to winter as I do expect the pattern to turn milder by week two of November, but it is a signal of some healthy early season cold shots on the way.
I will throw you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. The Atlantic should not be that active. Still waiting on the PDO to phase to positive. The Atmosphere and the Pacific have no reaction to change the Jet Stream. We are still having La Nina conditions just like we had the past three years. Still no signals into what this Winter may hold as far as Cold and Snowy. I’m losing confidence in the whole El Nino thing.
The lack of Rain this month puts my yearly Rainfall deficient around 17 inches. Driest October I’ve ever experienced, and getting drier day by day. Still no Frost in my area of the County, but the trees are beginning to get their Autumn color, and I’m enjoying the mild temperatures in the afternoons. If we can’t have Winter weather this year, maybe it will stay mild for the duration. Don’t know.
OK so… this is the time of year I make up for my AC abuse in the summer. Have I turned the heat on yet? No.. Am I going to? No
On the days where it will be in the 30s for lows but the next day is sunny and 60s, it’s not that bad…it’s when it starts to stay in the 40s or lower for highs and stays overcast that I break down and turn the heat on. I really don’t mind a cool house at all…
I was looking at this website that shows typical fall change times (you use the slider at the bottom) What I do not understand is southern Illinois, Missouri, Iowa having such later changes compared to KY…. why?
https://www.americanforests.org/fall-foliage-map/
That’s neat MarkLex for the foliage. I must confess I have already turned my heat on a couple times. I am hoping we have a better winter then last year or a more eventful winter I guess.