Good Tuesday, everybody. It’s a windy and mild day taking shape across Kentucky and this is a sign of things to come. We keep the mild for the rest of the week before dramatic changes roll in here late this weekend and early next week. It’s going to get cold! 🥶
Today features some clouds moving through from the southwest and there’s the slightest chance for a light shower in the west. Highs are into the 70s across the board! Winds will become very gusty through early Wednesday and may top 35mph at times, especially in the west and north…
Temps remain in the 70s for highs for the rest of the week with an 80 possible in the west.
Changes begin to show up as early as Friday as a front sags in from the northwest. That boundary lifts back to the north a bit on Saturday with just a scattered shower chance. This same boundary then works in here late Sunday and Monday as our deep trough slides in from the west. The GFS is the deepest with this trough…
It has support from the ICON, even though it doesn’t go out as far in time…
The EURO is similar, but you can see just a bit of the trough lagging coming out of the southwest…
Then we have the GFS that runs 4 times a day and continues to give us 4 different solutions each day. The latest solution doesn’t have nearly the trough sweeping in as it keeps a lot of energy in the southwest…
With the EPO forecast to continue to be strongly negative, that doesn’t favor troughs hanging around in the southwestern part of the country. Still, I can’t rule that out at the moment. Even with a weaker trough, that’s still some very cold air on the GFS.
If we get the deep trough sweeping in as shown by the other models, we get much more of a potent storm system with rain, wind and crashing temps. There would be a chance for a few flakes on the backside of such a system as shown by the Canadian…
In addition to all this, we still have to figure out what happens to a weakening Tammy in the Atlantic…
That system may very well impact the weather rolling in behind it across the country. There’s also the chance for another tropical system to pop down in the Caribbean over the next week or so.
I’ll update things later today. Make it a good one and take care.
The latest from the hurricane center shows Tammy about to enter an area of strong shear, which should knock it back to tropical storm levels over the next 24 hours. It should also come under the the influence of a southwest to northeast flow a lower and upper levels, which will start curving the storm’s path towards the northeast, over the next 24-36 hours.
No additional tropical systems are forecasted to develop over the next 7 days.
This post seemed like a bunch of “we don’t really know what is going to happen”!! Love reading the blog every day, Chris. Thankful you persist with your daily posts despite the fact that weather predicting has become harder and harder over the years!!
Near 80-degree temperatures are predicted for the Chicago Metro Area today, with sunny skies and windy conditions. Truly an amazing Fall day! The record for the date is 83 degrees set way back in 1963.
I remember 1963 -64 Mike as being a very dry and warm Fall followed by a Cold and Snowy Winter, but that occured in South Central Indiana. I just looked up what ENSO phase we were in 1963 -64. We were in a moderate El Nino. Maybe 1963 – 64 could be analog years for predicting this Winter’s El Nino. Don’t know.
I read many articles on why the art of predicting the weather is dependant on two teleconnections that are rarely discuss, The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. When you have an El Nino forming, the PDO turns positive, and soon after the AMO turns negative. This in turn affects all the other teleconnections, like the NAO and the AO in the North Atlantic. In other words if you wish for a Cold and Snowy Winter, you would want the Pacific Oscillations positive and the Atlantic Oscillations negative. The last time this happened was the very strong El Nino of 2015 – 16. NOAA has informed me that the PDO, now still negative from the La Nina we had for three years, but will likely change to positive sometime this Winter. Lets hope so Winter Lovers.