Good Wednesday and welcome to November. Am I the only one who thinks it’s bonkers that we are already to the eleventh month of the year??? As we roll into this new month, the weather is pretty darn cold for this time of year. Heck, we had the majority of days last winter warmer than today.
A few snowflakes are out there again today and these come after some rare Halloween snowflakes…
The first flakes of the season are flying on Halloween in Lexington! #kywx pic.twitter.com/0bkeXF1w0N
— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) October 31, 2023
This is only the 5th time in recorded history with snow falling on Halloween in Lexington. The other years:
2014, 1993, 1954 and 1930
Records for Lexington date back to the 1870s. #kywx
— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) November 1, 2023
Can we take anything from those years? Probably not since it’s a very limited dataset, but I wanted to take a look anyway. 1930 is too far back to be entered into the mix but the other 3 years looked like this for November and December…
Notice that trough in the east, centered very close to where we have seen the trough since the summer…
If we expand and look at December through February, you come up with this…
That’s a healthy trough in the eastern half of the country. Again, that’s a VERY limited dataset but I’m always trying to find connections from the past to help me better understand the present and future.
Speaking of the future, our temps start to come out of the frigid levels by Friday into the weekend. That’s when temps spike into the 60s with some really nice weather. This might be a good weekend to hang some Christmas lights! 🎄🎅
The first in a series of storm systems looks to roll in later Monday and Tuesday with another system or two later in the week…
That’s a cold air mass that’s sinking in from the north and that could set up a storm track that tries to slide south of us at some point. Watch how the 500mb height anomalies expand…
You can clearly see an undercutting jet that’s oriented from west to east across the country. Colder than normal temps with a pretty active setup is always something to keep an eye on.
This same view shows up farther down the road on the Control Run of the EURO Ensembles…
Is this a pattern that is signaling early season winter weather? That’s certainly the thought process of the EURO Weeklies. This 30 day from mid-November through mid-December average shows low heights across much of the country…
The Control Run during the same time is even more emphatic with this look…
Interesting to say the least!
I will have another update later today. Have a great first day of November and take care.
Chicago’s O’Hare Airport received 0.9 inches of snow on Halloween, making it the second-snowiest Halloween on record, behind the 3.4 inches that fell in 2019. This was only the third time ever that measurable snow was recorded on Halloween in Chicago. On only five other occasions a trace of snow fell. Snowfall records for Chicago date back to 1884, so that shows how rare snow is here on Halloween.
The high temperature was only 38 degrees, making it the fifth coldest Halloween ever for a daytime high.
At the NWS Forecast Office in the SW Suburbs near where I live, 0.7 inches of snow fell, just short of the record 0.9 inches that fell in 2019 for the date. The snowfall was pretty amazing with how hard the snow was coming down for a short period of time and how low the visibility was.
It’s a frigid 27 degrees this early morning here, but at least the wind has calmed down.
Looks like your off to a Colder and Snowier Winter Mike. I haven’t seen a Flake of Snow here in South Central Kentucky for at least a year. Hard Freeze here this morning with a low of 25 degrees. Looking forward to the Indian Summer coming up this weekend in to next week.
Thanks Chris. I remember that Mount Pinatubo ( Philippines ) erupted in June 1991 cooling the World’s climate through 1993. We had 4 ” of Snow accumulation on October 30th, 1993 in my home town in Indiana. In 2014 we had a weak El Nino followed by a very strong El Nino 2015 – 16. Those years were Cold and Snowy. The PDO went strongly positive in 2014 before the El Nino develop. Unlike this years El Nino, which carries a negative PDO. Maybe it will phase to positive later this Winter. Don’t Know.
It’s currently 24.9°F at my PWS near Bowling Green, and that’s the lowest reading recorded this Fall, and the lowest I’ve seen since early last Spring. The current SSTA chart shows a well developed El Niño pattern in the eastern Pacific, and it appears that a strong El Niño is likely straight into Spring 2024, which if taken at face value would lower our snowy chances this Winter. However, the continuing procession of troughs into our area is, in itself, an anomaly. These two factors, plus the lack of any consistent analogs based on current conditions, means that a Winter forecast will be much more difficult to produce.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
I had to break down finally and turn the heat on….to 64.. Not being cheap really we just like the house to have a chilly feel in summer and winter. I think of those years growing up living with my grandma in NC and she had a wood stove…People.. You do not even understand how hot she kept that house….I remember literally getting up at 3am sweating and I would go outside and stand in the 10 degree cold air.