Good Wednesday, folks. It’s another really nice and mild day out there and we have one more before a stout fall cold front arrives Friday. As I’ve been saying, this is the opening act to a much bigger storm system rolling in here early Thanksgiving week.
Let’s go ahead and start with the Friday front. This boundary rolls through here with an increasing round of showers. These showers increase across central and eastern Kentucky and should be able to spit out some decent rainfall numbers. Don’t be surprised if some of us pick up more than a half inch of rain out of this. There’s even the chance to push an inch in the southeast.
The GFS rain numbers are pretty healthy…
The Canadian is joining that camp as well…
The EURO was the stingiest with the rain, but this model is beefing up totals…
Temps behind this come back down to a seasonable brand of chill with upper 40s and low 50s for highs and lows deep in the 20s.
This sets the stage for a major storm system to develop and roll from the southern plains through our region and into the northeast from Monday through Wednesday. The evolution of this is still a work in progress and will be for a while longer as the models struggle in figuring out how much of a phased system we get.
Is this all southern branch energy? If so, we get a lot of rain and wind followed by colder temps. Do we get, at least, a partial phase with the northern branch of the jet stream? If so, we get rain, wind, crashing temps to some winter weather.
The jury is still out on which one wins the battle.
As mentioned, the models go back and forth on which of the above scenarios play out. The latest GFS has a partially phased storm system…
The Canadian is back to all southern branch energy…
The EURO is mainly southern branch energy, but it’s one heck of a storm system…
Whatever happens with this system, the pattern may throw another storm system at us late Thanksgiving weekend into early the following week…
This overall pattern is strongly supported by the various ensembles and I’ve shown you a lot of these in recent days and, really, over the past few weeks. It’s not like this pattern has been shy in showing its hand.
I will throw you another update later today. Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.
Gusty winds and very low humidity mean that fire danger is high today across all of central and eastern Kentucky. The prospects in Warren County are low for receiving any meaningful rain from the Friday system. Since September 1st, my PWS just south of Bowling Green has recorded only 4.15 inches of rain, with 2 inches of that total falling in one day towards the end of September. Much of the rain that day fell in heavy downpours, and because the ground was parched, runoff was high.
last time I remember a stretch of boring weather this bad was 1999. The REASON I remember that year is in August of that year I started a new job. And when I started, we were already in a drought and there were water restrictions..I felt like it would never rain again…I’m pretty sure that summer was REALLY hot too. I remember several 100+ days… I think it was December b4 it finally rained again – at least any decent rain. I can’t remember what that winter was like but I think there were multiple 1-3 inch snows