Good Monday, folks. Some snowflakes are flying for parts of the region on this final Monday for the month of November. Much colder winds are blowing out there today and will continue for the next few days before we turn our attention toward two big rain makers rolling in to start December.
Today’s flakes are scattered and only flying across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Much of this won’t show up on radar, but they will be on duty nonetheless…
There’s still enough low-level moisture for a few flakes to fly in the far east and southeast into Tuesday morning.
Highs today are in the 30s for most of central and eastern Kentucky with 40 in the west and far south. Gusty winds make it feel much colder through Tuesday with temps back in the 30s for highs but will actually be colder than today. Wind chills are absolutely frigid today into Tuesday…
That cold wind continues into Wednesday morning with wind chills back in the teens…
The numbers climb Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as winds turn southwesterly ahead of the first of two big storm systems set to roll in here. The first brings rain in here Thursday night through Friday night with lingering showers on Saturday. The second system then moves in for Sunday and Monday with more rain and colder air coming in behind it…
That’s a general 1″-2″ of rain likely from Friday through Monday, with locally higher amounts possible.
The air behind that isn’t terribly cold, but still below normal. The cold shots coming behind that will be a different story as the overall pattern changes up.
As I look farther down the road, I’m struck by the consistency of the longer range models like the GFS Extended and the EURO Weeklies. Both show sustained blocking across Greenland through December and that tries to occasionally hook up with a ridge along the west coast and into western Canada.
Here’s the average of GFS Extended for the next 30 days…
The control run of the GFS Extended is even stronger with the trough in the east…
If we look at the GFS Extended forecast of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) shows it getting crossing teh “nothing” phase and emerging into Phase 8 and Phase 1 by the second week of December…
I know that’s a confusing diagram for most, but follow the red to blue to purple line to see where the forecast is for that particular date.
Phases 8 and 1 in the winter months offer up a cold look for much of the country…
The EURO Weeklies continue to offer up a similar looking setup across North America as does the GFS Extended…
Ya hate to see it, don’t ya? 😜❄️🥶
I will have another update later today. Until then, stay warm, enjoy the day and take care.
Thanks Chris. Great Blog. I’ve had a very difficult time learning how the MJO operates. You have explained it very well. Hope it phases into the 1/8 for all the Winter Lovers. I read where the MJO will phase into 3/4 the first week of December. A milder period.
Hoping for the heavy Rains forecast for next weekend. Our soil moisture is still well below normal. Also hoping any severe weather ( Tornadoes ) will not happen next month, like we had a few years ago in December.
Guess the big question is can we sustain the blocking that’s showing..Mid month is a long ways off..Just by reading and my understanding the big warm pool of water in the wpac may be slowing the MJO in the warm phases longer..Really gonna be interesting to see how this strong El Niño behaves this winter..
Phase 3 & 4 MJO in December
Ugh (since emotes don’t work)
Not biting on any long-term projection.
I just know it is cold. I just hope we can get the moisture and the cold together for snow sometime this winter but I have to admit I just want it cold enough to snow and not any further down then that but Mother Nature always has her own ideas and Ky Mother Nature has an attitude lol Stay warm check on the pets the little kitten that was set off here still wants outside she’s on my carport she has things to get into but she wants to sit in a chair off the ground so I have a cushion and warm throw I think they feel more protected off the ground she won’t get in the carrier.