Good Friday, folks. Today is an action packed day with high winds and the chance for strong storms, then the temps crash with some snow showers during the evening. Once this system comes through, we are faced with how to handle the potential snow maker from Sunday night through Tuesday.
Before we get into the look ahead, I just invested in a dedicated server for Kentucky Weather Center. This rather pricey investment means crashes should become a thing of the past. The problem is, it’s going to take a few days to migrate all the data over, so be patient, please. 😁
Here’s a breakdown of the current system:
- High winds are likely today with gusts from 50mph to 60mph a good bet. Locally higher gusts will be possible.
- Power hits and power outages are possible along with local wind damage.
- A few strong or severe storms are possible, especially during the afternoon into central Kentucky.
- Temps spike into the 50s through the central and east for afternoon highs.
- Temps crash from west to east during late afternoon and evening. Many areas drop into the upper 20s to low 30s by late evening.
- Snow showers and a few snow squalls will be possible through Saturday morning, especially across central and eastern Kentucky.
- Minor accumulations will be possible.
- Lows Saturday morning are 20-25 but wind chills may reach the single digits across the west and north.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the low-end risk for severe storms for much of the state today…
The future radar from the Hi Res NAM shows todays showers and storms and also shows the quick transition to snow showers and a few squalls from late this evening into the overnight hours…
This is a frigid weekend with arctic air pushing in Saturday night. That may bring a few snow showers with it as it unleashes wind chills that may go below zero to start Sunday. Check out the wind chill forecast from Saturday morning through Sunday morning…
To snow or not to snow? That is the question as we look ahead to the Sunday night through Tuesday time period. If we do snow, how much are we talking about? That’s another great question I’m still not ready to answer.
If you want snow around here, you cheer on the The Snow Track. Team No Snow goes for the farther south and flatter solution…
Unfortunately, each model continues to jump around from run to run and this may very well continue through today.
The trend is for a slower overall system with some light stuff trying to get into parts of the state Sunday night and Monday with a better shot later Monday and Thursday.
Here’s how the GFS sees things…
The Canadian has a similar overall look to the GFS, but has substantially more moisture and snow…
That’s a heck of a snow hit on the Canadian. 🍁❄️
The EURO has been the most erratic model of all the models with this system. A few days ago, it had a crushing snowstorm burying the entire state. Yesterday it lost the entire system with basically no snow for our region.
The latest run is closer to finding the system again, but it’s still a miss…
The other overseas model I look at is the UKMET and it doesn’t agree with the EURO as it continues to show snow from Texas to New England…
That’s based on a 10:1 ratio, btw, but that’s not the point. The point is to show how that model does have a storm, unlike the EURO.
While I can see how the EURO could be onto something, I suspect we see it snap back over the next few runs.
Bitterly cold temps will be the rule with this system, regardless of snow or no snow, though snow certainly would make it even colder.
Another arctic blast is likely later next week with the potential for another system…
I will have your normal updates later today. Until then, I have all your storm tracking tools for the day…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris for the update and the detailed breakdown of what may occur in the next 48 hours. I think we all should forget about the various weather models because they seem to not agree ever these days on the weather here in Kentucky. I’m now hoping we get a good blanket of snow on Monday, as this will make everyone happy here on the blog, and maybe training snowstorms thereafter. One can hope !
Have a great day everyone and stay safe ! And thanks Chris for fixing the blog’s interruptions.
Man!! It’s always a grind to pickup a few inches of snow in this state.
Cutters to the west of us & snow to the south of us.
Oh, well I have no other choice but to enjoy the excessive winds & the frozen mud.
On MLK day January 17, 1994 Louisville accumulated 15.5 ” of snow. It was not in the forecast until it happened. I was living in Indiana at that time and woke up to a foot of snow and thunder.
That is the storm I remember smacking KY big time because at that time I was living in Brevard NC… we were under WSW for major snow and then NOTHING happened.. KY got it all. I remember being sooooo P’d
The models went from an apparent good chance for a few days (with some southern shift), to a coin flipper yesterday and now a dice roll. Not exactly a favorable trend, but at least not ice before the bitter cold.
Right Bubba, at least it won’t be ice.
I mean wouldn’t the Euro be the outliner here? At least for now? Even the WPC for doesn’t favor the Euros solution for now. The Euro could be right in the end, suppose we’ll know by 00z today
Update: 06z Euro is caving… But it only goes to 90 so not sure what that means for Kentucky