Good Tuesday everybody. Arctic temps continue today across the state as snow showers and flurries remain for some areas. Many areas picked up on accumulating snow Monday and some areas will see a touch more early Today. Where does the pattern go from here? I will touch on that and have your tracking tools.
Let me start by saying I’m going to resist the urge to go on an epic rant about the Monday failure of the National Weather Services across our region. Dozens of roads closed and hundreds of cars involved in accidents says enough. Watches, Warnings and Advisories are meant to alert the public of weather that may negatively impact their lives. The key word is IMPACT. Monday’s snows had a major impact on our lives and should have been a no brainer for an advisory for the entire area.
Snow showers and flurries will continue early today across central and eastern Kentucky. The eastern part of the state will see the bulk of the action with some light accumulations possible again. Highs today will range from the low and mid 20s east to low 30s in the far west. Winds will continue to gust up and add an extra chill to the air.
Let’s track what’s out there today…
Current Temps
A weak system will pass just to our north Wednesday night and this may drag some flakes into the eastern part of the state. The GFS Ensembles sees the chance…
There is a surge of mild air that shoots in for a day or so to end the week. Highs should hit 50 Friday before another shot of cold moves in over the weekend. Will this cold shot bring a storm with it? Several model runs over the past few days have been showing something trying to pop. The Canadian Model is rather excited…
Sunday Morning
Sunday Evening
The GFS Ensembles are hinting around at something…
Some of the other models hold the energy back and bring a storm out early next week. We shall see how this plays out in the coming days.
Those same GFS Ensembles continue the trend of showing a deep trough for the middle and end of next week…
Have a great Tuesday and check back for updates. Take care.
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While it is getting tiresome of hearing so much bashing of the NWS offices, I can show you specific examples of WWA’s issued for specific counties in the past and yet numerous accidents still occurred, because even the miracle salt can’t completely overcome a deluge of snow all at once.
The most popular time for accidents to occur is when the roadways get that little covering just enough to negate your traction.
These snow showers that occurred were intense at times, CB even you have to admit this. I don’t think salt crews could’ve overcome some of those intense bands.
Warn the public all you want, when people are driving through completely dry conditions then BAM, caught off guard, can’t see where you’re going and fail to slow down in time, etc…
My opinion may not matter to some of you, but I think you’re just looking to blame someone. Truth is the random nature of these intense bands nobody could have predicted exactly where these would have setup.
Now as far as the NWS office in JKL, they should have at least followed up with an expanded advisory as conditions were obviously deteriorating. They didn’t. I don’t think it would have changed the outcome. Accidents would still have occurred, even with an advisory and salt on the roadways, especially in those elevated parts of Perry and Leslie counties. Those bands were far too intense.
Like I say, for those who want specific examples of numerous accidents occurring even under an advisory/warning status, I’ll be more than pleased to dig those up for you on my blog.
It’s also ANNOYING that others can’t just use “common sense” and stop relying on others to use “common sense” for them. We see this everyday :/
Guess i will take this dusting and be happy with it
LOL! Amazing. Nobody is arguing that every accident could have been avoided. Good grief. There was a royal screwup, yet again — case closed.
Well, sometimes there’s nothing you can do when you’re caught out in something that comes up suddenly. That said I agree with this. You always have to be aware of the weather, and adjust accordingly. Whatever advisory some government agency does or does not issue shouldn’t change that.
Hate to bring up basketball at a time like this, but I will. I saw/heard numerous complaints on how bad the officiating was the other day in the UofL / UK game. Why is it not the other way around. Bad judgment on the players making stupid fouls and making wrong decisions. Kinda of like driving in snow/ice. NWS put out special weather statements that warned us of possible adverse driving conditions. We as people have to make proper decisions while driving in any kind of wet weather. If snow is falling slow down, give yourself enought room and stay off the breaks. Like the NWS the REFS just called what they saw and that was foul after foul. THINK SNOW as it looks like we might have a few chances over the next week or so.
I guess I’m old school…our society has become soft, lazy, and walk around with an air of entitlement. If its snowing, SLOW DOWN!!! I agree that the NWS can have a delayed reaction sometimes, but people need to use common sense. We have so many more tools to say weather alert than we did back in the day. More people just need to read this blog! Stay warm today weather watchers, take a deep breath and get ready for the next snow potential.
my opinion and it matters nothing, but people get in their suv’s and think they can go anywhere and at any speed … look at most of the wrecks on tv and what kind of vehicle is laying upside down — an SUV. they don’t take in consideration that ice is under the snow and I don’t care what kind of 4wd you have – it ain’t going on ice.
Thats because of what they see on TV for the ads for the SUVs. Everybody gets in thinking well it did good on TV but the thing is they are proffessional drivers and i’m almost sure it wasn’t done in just 1 take and that it took several attempts to make those commercials with SUVs plowing through snow without wrecking
You get a dusting. And just 12 miles away at my house there is 3″!! Wow! that’s the power of snow squalls!!
5″ plus and still snowing in the Roxana area Letcher County. Good call Chris.
I disagree. Before the event started, LMK expected it to be a “widespread” event. The said so. Well, it turned out to be widespread. There is nothing “random” about what happened yesterday. Everybody saw snow and slick roads from time to time. Once the snow started falling and the car accident reports started pouring in, THAT is when the advisory should have been issued. Advisories don’t stop accidents, but acting like the NWS shouldn’t at least do their job and issue them is a dumb way of thinking. Two wrongs don’t make a right.
My goodness, why in the world do people need a government agency to tell them it’s snowing and that roadways are potentially slick! Use your common sense folks! This was not a widespread accumulating event. Some people received a dusting, while the next county over picked up an inch or two. I don’t think the NWS should be issuing advisories over potential impacts of scattered snow showers. Their parameters for issuing warnings/advisories are clear and can be found on most NOAA websites. You know, these little hit and miss systems happen every winter. Twenty years ago, people would laugh if the NWS reacted with a WWA everytime it snowed an inch. Now it’s like people need the government to warn them about what should be common sense. I depend on the NWS to issue watches and warnings for serious weather-potential tornado outbreaks, flooding, major Winter storms, not a flipping dusting of snow!
A dusting here in Burnside. May be just enough for my 3 year old to sled down the hill in the back yard!
Thanks, Chris. We didn’t get much snow, but we sure had a skating rink last night and this morning! Side and main roads last night were horrible! Mains are pretty clear now, with some spots, but many side roads are still hazardous.
That is more than a dusting- That is a genuine sole skimmer 🙂 Not an ankle biter, but if enough for a sled- duting than a dusting.
Looks like north Richmond got a slight dusting and south Lexington where I work got more of a true dusting. For the most part, north Richmond was a squall free zone.
True dat. Most bad wrecks during snow events are AWD or 4WD, since folks forget ice does not care how many wheels are driven.
I think they should put out the advisory… When I was out yesterday afternoon the roads were fine.. we just got a dusting… my 17 year old daughter went to work after school and when the Louisville NWS put out the alert the local weather station passed it on via text alert…. I let her know that black ice was being reported on the roads so she took a different route home… She is a fairly new driver and these alerts are important…
Buddyx unless you get onto the nws’s site you will never know there a special weather statement !!
These weren’t typical “snow showers “. They were very blinding! All chris is trying to say is the nws should have issued advisories because of the impact heavy snow squalls and then with heavy wind have! I couldn’t see for a straight hour out my front window! When you’re driving on the highway you don’t really get much time at all ! Sometimes you can’t see the heavy snow until you’re in it and then it’s too late!! You have hot a standstill!
I have to agree with Chris, and disagree with those who act like the advisories don’t matter.
For example, when I was heading to a friend’s house yesterday, roads were pretty slick by my house. When I let them know that I may be late, they were surprised. Why? Because there was nothing in their area, until much later.
They could have left their house, driving normally, and be caught off guard with the sudden change in conditions just driving across town.
Even the NWS office would disagree with those that think WWA aren’t necessary- considering they did ultimately issue one for much of the area.
This was a weird one. In Lexington, I was on New Circle Road at Old Frankfort Pike last evening and it was bone dry with some wisps of snow blowing around on the pavement. By the end of the entrance ramp to New Circle from Old Frankfort to the exit ramp onto Leestown Rd. (maybe 100 yards if that) it was a solid sheet of ice.
I don’t understand how you say they expected it to be widespread…
They didn’t even mention snow in my forecast less than 12 hours out…
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=LMK&issuedby=LMK&product=ZFP&format=CI&version=8&glossary=0
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=LMK&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=12&glossary=0
And this from our weather hero, Chris…early Mon blog post:
” want to stress that we’re dealing with snow showers and squalls and that makes it hard to really broadbrush totals on a map. Some areas getting under repeat squalls may pick up totals higher than forecast while those that are skipped may come up a bit short.”
Those words, describing the heavier squalls, that don’t sound so widespread to me.
Still, JKL should have stepped up when things started deteriorating and they didn’t.
Like you said, an advisory would not have prevented the accidents.
talk about weird weather — Friday forecast for SE KY is giving close to 60 degrees …. no wonder people stay sick around here.
6:01 AM Monday:
“This scenario today may well set up as a high coverage/low QPF scenario.”
They KNEW the snow wouldn’t be a deep snow, but it WOULD be a widespread event. Yet… they didn’t issue anything to warn people until 14 hours later as the snow was ending. Total failure.
However, I did find this from the JKL NWS. They must have issued the advisory for Perry and Leslie county after all, and this was at 11:30am, before the really bad stuff started setting in.
“KYZ086-087-109-110-112-113-115>117-119-031200-
KNOX-BELL-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BARBOURVILLE…MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…
SALYERSVILLE…PRESTONSBURG…JACKSON…HINDMAN…HAZARD…
MANCHESTER…HYDEN…INEZ
1136 AM EST MON JAN 2 2012
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY…
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN…SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN EVENT TOTAL
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF KY HIGHWAY 80.
DUE TO THE COLD AIR THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY. WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE BRISK WINDS…SOME BLOWING OF THE SNOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH ANY SNOW SQUALLS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.”
I believe they were referring to a question of how much moisture would be available for snow showers.
Since they felt that the heavier snow showers would be closer to the Bluegrass, only flurries would suffice for Louisville (high coverage/low QPF).
If you have a weather radio – with it set for your county (and the counties you work in/travel through) – you WILL recieve the weather statements. Weather radios AREN’T just for tornados!
well in GUNCJHESTER we got heavy squall yesterafternoon and thaty was IT, bout 4 tenth of a inch on 80 were i live.
i figure for sure more after dark, but as far as BAILEY forcast NAILED IT.
AS FARS as the NWS they are poitiful.
not bout thw wrecks, its ABOUT they get paid to do a JOB!!! not pick there nose and not stay up to date on models and whats coming.
that said it wasnt majio event, the bad pilup in GRANT county IMO was moreon the DRIVER than the snow.
see ole MS and WX sparring gives us today song,
fromy ROCKY 4 BURNING HEARTS baby!! WXMAN vs MS!! 2 WORLDS COLIDE RIVAL WEATHERMAN!!WOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Seems like a lot of mixed feelings here today. I’ll point out my concern. More than half of the cocorahs reports did not have more than a trace of snow. This means that over half of the region has the potential not to take the next winter weather advisory seriously. As for public impact I’m sure the local nws offices will do there best to adjust for the next snowfall w/public impact. Same goes for myself on my site.
NWS in Lou. area put an advisory out and area stations scrolled it on the TV. I am not blaming the NWS for all the accidents. I am blaming all the idiots out there who just don’t know how to drive in the snow. Pretty simple. Don’t dive in a pool during a lighting storm and slooooooow down when it snows. EVEN A LITTLE BIT…THINK SNOW…
Let me start by saying no disrespect meant to anyone.
It’s not that the advisories don’t matter, they do. The problem is people don’t use common sense and then want to blame someone for their own ignorance. When I see snow on the road I slow down. I’m also twice as aware of other drivers who aren’t being careful. I think they call that defensive driving. I don’t and won’t rely on the NWS or any other government agency to run my life or tell me when it’s safe to go outside. I work in the medical field and there are times when I have no choice but to get out and drive no matter what the weather. I use common sense and drive within my capabilities and road conditions. People get killed in snowy weather as well as sunshine and 80 degrees. I hate to see that happen but the only way to present it is to stop people from driving.
Now I’m ready to be attacked.
The weather doesn’t make people sick. Virus’s do!
People with respiratory problems are affected by extreme shifts in weather. Nothing toc do with viruses.
gosh thanks mr helper i’m soooo glad you corrected that … where did you say your doctor degree is from ???
So would that mean snow on sunday?????
no wrong song
CRAZY TRAIN OZZY!!! yea!!!! ozzt!!!OZZY!!!!
o9n weather week from this weekend so basically 2 weeks i see something BREWING.
First of all yorur welcome. 2nd I don’t recall claiming to be a doctor, 3rd I wasn’t even responding to you so why the smart- a– sarcasm?
sorry Mike … the sarcasm was intended for bjenks …… my apologies to ya
Good point! This event was sporadic and places like where I live got much of nothing and others got something. This was not your typical system, but they could have pointed out the nature of the event and simply stated that due to snow squalls, some areas would get about nothing and other areas would be slick.
This event as far as snow from a topography perspective looked like swiss cheese (with more holes than cheese). The event probably impacted a third of the total potential area, due to the nature of snow squalls.
Or perhaps more fitting for this winter, another song from the same album:
I Don’t Know 😉 IMO, this winter is going to be a crap shoot for predicting snow (more than normal), so expect similar output from local mets- like this event.
CB was ahead of the curve, but our perspective is based on this blog. Most mets don’t even have a blog and no others updates like CB.
how about this one, rolo and bubba
storms are fine, snow is quicker
the more it snows, the more its slicker
read the blog, be in the know
what the weather will be tomorrow…
mr baileys sollution lol thats the best i can do at the moment. i was gonna try doing something with mr crowley, and call it mr bailey, but i couldnt think of anything.
we need a bubba buster. wish i would been back home in ky to see what little feel yesterday. its 56 degrees here in houston right now, according to nws houston. looking forward to coming home next week.
i will follow chris’s blog to see when the best days to travel are.
maybe we can call the album blizzard of kentucky , or something like that.
I think we have to watch for freezing drizzle wednesday night into Thursday as well LEX and northeast. Chris is getting on a hot streak!
Not a doctor, but I did sleep at a holiday inn express last night.
Just something my dad always said to my mom when I was growing up. Always wore shorts and tshirt even in the winter my mom would always make sure I was over dressed and by the time I came home from playing I was in my shorts and tshirt.
SORRY! I did not mean to P off anyone.
THINK SNOW!!!