Good Sunday to one and all. This harsh winter pattern is about to break as we flip things around for the week ahead. We are going from one extreme to the other with milder temps and waves of heavy rain on the way. We have to be on guard for some high water issues before the week is finished.

Let us begin with what’s going on out there today. This morning starts bitterly cold with most areas below 0. As a matter of fact, some of the traditional cold locations may hit -10 or colder, putting the wraps on one of the harshest weeks of winter we’ve had in years.

Temps this afternoon hit the 20s with a mix of sun and clouds. That means little melting will take place, so we will likely have another round of snow days coming on Monday.

The setup in the week ahead features the cold retreating to the north, allowing for a strong southwest flow to kick in. The Gulf of Mexico will be wide open for business as waves of low pressure roll from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.

The heavy rain train looks to set up in our region…

You can see these series of systems rolling our way and there’s the chance for the one next weekend to bring some winter back in here…

The models continue to show the corridor of heavy rain from the western Gulf into our region…

Looking ahead toward February, we are likely to see another extended period of winter weather taking over much of the country. This is likely to begin late in week one into week two of the month as blocking really starts to take control of the overall pattern once again. It’s a signal that may very well last into March, meaning we aren’t likely to have an early spring this year.

The latest 30 day 500mb average height anomalies remind me of what they looked like back in December when they were forecasting for this month. Blocking over the top with much lower heights underneath…

That shows up on the Control run as well…

Those are smoothed out 30 day averages, but they’re signaling another active west to east storm track with the potential for arctic air intrusions to get back into much of the country.

I’ll see you back here for updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.