Our Soggy Setup Continues

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another very wet day across Kentucky with periods of heavy rain targeting the east, bringing the chance for some local high-water issues. Another system follows that up this weekend with more rain and maybe a little bit of snow to end.

Rain today is heaviest across the east and southeast with lighter rains farther west. Temps are in the 50s to near 60 ahead of a low pressure rolling through the region. This moves through and knocks the temps down for Friday with highs in the 40s for many areas.

The next system then rolls in Friday night and Saturday with more rounds of heavy rain. Once again this targets the southeastern part of the state.

That’s the area where I’m expecting, at least, another 1″-3″ of rain to fall through Saturday…

The forecast models are all coming into line with this potential with some going above the 3″ amount…

This is clearly the area we have to be on guard for possible high water issues, especially along the larger waterways.

As our weekend system blows through, colder air wraps in behind it and there’s the chance for some wet snow Sunday into Sunday night.

The NAM only goes through 7am Sunday, but shows the wraparound snows trying to get into the mix…

The GFS has some decent wraparound wet snows Sunday and Sunday night…

There’s an outside chance for a little slush to show up Sunday and Sunday night, so that’s something to watch.

Temps are seasonable to close out January with a much bigger change toward winter lurking for later in week two of February and through the rest of the month.

The EURO weeklies continue to show the early February ridge across the northern part of the country pushed north into Canada, hooking up with blocks from Greenland through the North Pole and back toward a ridge up the west coast…

You can see how the progression of this whole setup is very similar to what we had from late December into January. That led to the harsh winter weather we had for the past few weeks. The next pattern may have more staying power as evidenced by the 30 day average of the control run of the Euro Weeklies…

Those blocks are stout, folks! Y’all got a lot more cold and snow coming before this winter is over. ❄️

Updates come your way later today. Until then, let’s track some rain…

Have a great day and take care.

5 Comments

  1. MarkLex

    I’m actually GLAD we’re getting rain… cuz if you think about it…it needs to rain quite a bit here…Remember how dry it was and every system that came through might have given us 1/2 inch or so….good but it was really never enough so that’s when the drought index kept creeping up…only to probably be erased at this point.

    • JoeDfromBG

      That’s right, Mark, we never did seem to be able to hook into a solid flow of Gulf moisture until this week, but as is the case with our new normal, we get it all at once. We’ve picked up 2.00″ of rain over the past 36 hours in central Warren County, after getting dribs and drabs in the past 2 months.

  2. JoeDfromBG

    There’s more evidence to back up the EURO’s 500mb height anomaly fcst for mid-February playing out, as where another shot of very cold air could make its appearance. Dr. Judah Cohen’s latest Atlantic Oscillation & Polar Vortex Analysis/Forecast reinforces that thought, plus points to a possible stretched PV incursion.
    Here’s the report:
    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

  3. Jeff Hamlin

    I don’t think we needed much rain, but am glad we’re getting some. The salt being washed away is nice.

  4. Schroeder

    Thanks Chris. We had 1.30 inches of rain with this first event, but this weather is really depressing after having 5 inches of snow on the ground last week. Hoping we receive more and better snows in February and March. Wet snows are the best for replenishing soil moisture.

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