Good Saturday, my fellow weather weenies. We continue to track another potent storm system into the region and it’s bringing rounds of heavy rain out there today with the chance for a period of wet snow for some on Sunday. I’m also taking a look at the February pattern that looks loaded with winter.
Heavy rain today into tonight may total 1″-2″ for many and this may lead to some local high water issues. There’s also the chance for some thunder to get in the mix at some point.
Winds will also be gusty through Sunday as this low passes right on top of us. Gusts of 35mph will be possible as colder winds filter in overnight and Sunday. That’s when some wraparound rains and wet snows will be possible.
The NAM fam is trying to develop a healthy band of wraparound wet snows in the east on Sunday with lingering snow showers Sunday night. Here’s the future radar from the Hi Res NAM from 7pm this evening through 10pm Sunday…
You can clearly see that model spitting out a little thumping band in the east and southeast. The NAM is doing something similar…
Right now, those are the only models showing such a hefty snow band in the east and are likely overdone, but I can’t rule out some slushy accumulations in a few spots.
A clipper arrives Tuesday and Wednesday with some rain and snow showers possible. The models are growing a little stronger with this system…
CANADIAN
GFS
I have no changes to the idea of a major pattern change as we get into February and some of the operational models like the GFS are speeding up the process a bit. Check out how this run starts things out in week one…
The EURO Weeklies continue to pound home the idea of a prolonged period of rough winter weather for much of the country from the second week of February through early March
This animation starts on February 9th and goes through February 20th and it shows the trough deepening in the east…
Now, let’s expand that from February 21st through March 3rd…
The blocking showing up from Greenland through the North Pole and back toward Alaska into the west coast is doing some work.
This winter pattern is also showing up more and more on the potential snowfall on the same EURO Weeklies. This represents the average of 101 different members that make up the Weeklies…
Snow chances to the deep south illustrate the potential of this pattern. BTW, those totals aren’t to be believed, it’s just the model showing the where snow is possible in the coming weeks.
Buckle up. ❄️❄️
I’ll drop by for updates later today. Until then here are your radars to track today’s heavy rains…
Make it a great Saturday and take care.
Thanks Chris. I agree that winter weather is far from over. I just hope that the temperatures don’t exceed the normal to bring plants out of their dormancy only to be injured when winter weather returns. With the predicted rains today, I think that the soil moisture will be adequate when spring planting season arrives.
Have a great Saturday Chris!
We certainly don’t need a repeat of what happened in BG in 2023. On March 1st, we started out with high temperature of 79°F, but it plunged to 17°F on the 20th. Damage to trees and shrubs was extensive, especially those with northern exposure. I lost 6 mature shrubs, and that was average in my neighborhood south of Bowling Green.
Yeah, I remember that late cold snap Joe. I lost several plants that I have not replaced. It’s just too expensive for me to garden anymore. I have to be content with the natural plants that surround my cabin, and there are many.
Yell, I don’t believe the snow ensembles but I do believe that the temperatures will fall below normal
I’m hoping we will have at least 3 or 4 good snow events before spring arrives. The kind of snow that packs well so the Children can build Snowmen. I saw a Snowman that a Child built when I went to town the other day. It made me feel good inside.
It is a good feeling even my kitten didn’t seem to know what the snow was falling as she looked out the window. I love seeing kids enjoying it and some for the first time. I think back to the big snows I had as a child awesome. I remember my grandmother making me wear kerns bread Wrappers over my boots or shoes. Good times great memories great snows.
I’m getting an ice vibe. Hopefully just something I ate.
It’s just something you ate.
No ice vibes Bubba G lol
There was a terrible ice storm in the midwest states at the end of the Arctic intrusion and the return flow off the Gulf took over earlier this past week.
That’s the usual scenario, when a moist low overruns entrenched cold air at the surface, and the depth of that cold air is critical. If the cold air layer is thick, then the precipitation will have a chance to freeze as sleet, but if that cold air is thin, then we get ice. The intensity of the rain is another factor; if the downpour is heavy, it may lessen the ice storm’s duration by helping to pull warm air down to the surface, but it also means that the ice buildup could be more rapid and ultimately thicker before a transition to all rain. It also increases the chances for a period of rain on ice, which is the absolutely worst surface to drive on. I ran into that many years ago in Reading, Pa…it got so bad that local and state police had to stop traffic on every major roadway.
That should have been “…moist flow…”
What happened here in the Chicago area was that the bulk of the precipitation fell as rain with temperatures around 33 or 34 degrees on Tuesday. When it started late Monday night though, the pavement temps were below freezing due to the extreme cold we had just gone through, so the rain froze on contact with the pavement, creating a virtual ice-skating rink on untreated surfaces. The ice gradually melted throughout the day, fortunately.
I hope we won’t have to deal with any significant ice events, but it happens in our area much too often.
Fortunately, here in the Chicago area, it was just an inconvenience and not a major ice storm. Untreated roads, parking lots, and sidewalks were very slick for a time from Monday night through Tuesday morning. Winds were light also, so there were no power outages.
The ice storm in January 2009 was the worst ice storm I have ever experience. The Ice was three inches thick on the downed trees. Just 10 miles south of my area it came in the form of just plain rain. I guess we were at the right elevation for ice.
The 2003 ice storm was worse for me and one that causes me anxiety every time I hear the possibility of ice, but 2009 wasn’t any fun either.
I remember Schroeder that’s the one thing I don’t want is Ice. I guess none of us do. I have grown fond of electricity but not the bill lol.