Good Monday, everyone. We have some flakes flying out there today as our overall pattern is in flux for the closing days of January. Once into early February, we make the transition to a setup that can feature a lot of harsh winter weather across much of the country.
Today’s flakes are just flakes for much of the region, but the far southeast will likely pick up accumulating snows. This may create some slick travel for those counties that border Virginia, so keep that in mind.
Here are your radars to follow whatever is out there…
The next system is a clipper dropping in late Tuesday into Wednesday. This likely brings some light rain and snow showers to the region. The future radar from the Hi Res NAM tracks this from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning…
A rather convoluted pattern takes shape by the weekend with a deep trough heading into the northeastern part of the country as a big southern storm rolls from west to east. This may wind up being a close call for a possible impact on our weather…
I have no changes to the idea of a very wintry setup fully settling in during the second week of February and, likely, continuing into the first half of March. As I’ve been outlining for nearly two weeks now, the pattern progression reminds me of what we went through to get to the harsh few weeks of winter we recently had. The difference is, this one will likely have much more staying power.
The EURO Weeklies continue to show this progression very well as blocking sets up in the high latitudes, allowing deep troughs to swing into the eastern part of the Country. This is a daily animation that goes from February 11 through February 29…
If we extend that out for the first two weeks of March, we find a similar look with the trough in the east…
If you’re a fan of an early spring, this is not the pattern for you. I’m torn on how to feel about this because I shift to spring mode by the second half of February.
I’ll have updates later today so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris. I like a cold and snowy February / March to extend plant’s dormancy into mid April, with no spring freezes happening. After that I’m ready for the growing season and summer weather.
Have a great day Chris !
If you think about it… winter is only 3 months long… You have basically 8 months of spring like temps for the most part (out of the year) with Nov and March being wild cards.,,, sometimes even April can be a wild card.
Example: 1998…the winter that wasn’t until Feb when we got blasted with a huge unpredicted snow….That year it was cold all the way up until JUNE! The best way I can describe it is that it felt like chilly fall weather for months after that snow. I think real summer arrived mid-June that year. You really never know what each year is going to bring. It’s always different.
Had rainfall almost 3 inches here my next of woods in far western ky. The Ohio river is forecast to be over flood stage Wednesday. I couldn’t tell you when the last time the river was over the flood stage. It’s been awhile!
Sadly the wintry forecast for mid-February through the first week in March might be a bust. Mid February will NOT BE like mid January.
The pattern ahead is overall mild with periods of cooler air behind storms.
The blocking high to the north into Canada means that the SE/East Coast can have quick cooler shots, but not likely to see any kind of sustained or notable cold for the time being.
Write it down!
Are you doubt Chris work. I been following Chris for 10 years very seldom his forecast is wrong.
To be truthfully honest, I don’t see the rest of the winter being that harsh, either. I’m not doubting Chris’s hard work whatsoever, it’s just the past few years have always been a bust somewhere along the winter months. Mother nature can be quite tricky. I’m on the teamspring train with Chris. I’m ready for winter to be out of here anyway.
No don’t take it that way. That is Dash’s findings on what may happen the rest of the winter. I’m hoping he is right because I don’t like frigid, dry weather without snow cover.
Dash is typically wrong and only exists to be a contrarian.
Same here, Schroeder. I can’t stand cold and dry winters with no snow. It makes it so depressing.
I’ll write it down as your usual BS.
Always a 50 /50 chance with the weather predictions. Dash may be right or Chris may be right. I quit trying to forecast the weather and leave it up to the professionals. I’ve seen a lot of major snows in February and March in my lifetime. It has been a long time though.
On the weather cams Jenkins and Pine Mountain have a beautiful coating of wet snow. This is a perfect example why wild Rhododendrons grow there and not here. This is one group of plants that has be be in the clouds to do well and bloom.
Jenkins isn’t far from me 25 minutes or 30 but they get it and I am just down the road and don’t. I think it is because it going up in elevation that has to be it. Also has anyone heard anything about February 5th time frame to watch for a possible accumulating snow???? I guess it’s just chatter right now. I hope it rings true but if it does I am sure Chris will tell us.
I’m in full spring mode by Thanksgiving. If I had my way, I would live in permanent May through September, weather. For all you cold and snow lovers I’m happy for you, but I’m in desperate need of my warm sunshine & HHH summer days.
MJO Phase 8 is possible, we shall see