Good Sunday and HAPPY NEW YEAR! 2012 is starting off with a bang as a strong cold front works across the region. This front has some serious wind with it and will bring a big temp drop today that leads us into arctic air and snow over the next few days.
I will have a full update later today. In the meantime… Let’s hit the high notes and throw some tracking tools your way.
– Winds today are going to gust to 40mph at times as our front works in. A wet ground argues for some weak trees to be in trouble.
– Temps will be well into the 40s to start the day and will quickly fall into the 30s from west to east this afternoon and early evening.
– A few showers will likely accompany the front and I can see a snow shower or flurry behind it before we dry it out for a few hours tonight.
– A secondary system moves in Monday and will usher in the arctic air and increase light snow and snow showers across the central and east. Norhtwesterly winds will then kick in later in the day and carry us into early Tuesday and that will give us a booster shot of snow showers and squalls.
Check out the European Model by Tuesday Morning…
Let me draw your attention to the relative humidity panels at the bottom. The one on the right is at 850mb and the left is 700mb. Both are very moist and that’s a good sign for widespread snow showers and squalls. Throw in the passage of the thermal min and viola.. accumulating snows. How much? I hope to have a map out later today. Central and eastern Kentucky will be the main players.
The GFS Ensembles match up pretty well…
– Temps will stay in the mid and upper 20s for highs Monday and only reach the low and mid 20s for Tuesday. Lows will reach the teens by Tuesday morning.
– Winds will be gusty and this will make it feel even colder and will blow around whatever snow you have outside your house.
– I still like the possibility of a weak system diving in by Wednesday night and early Thursday.
– The pattern has a wintry look over the next few weeks. The GFS is going crazy with cold and snow… but it is the GFS. 
Here are the tracking toys…
Current Temps
Check back for an update at some point late today. Happy New Year and take care.
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Thanks for all you do Chris, may you have a blessed 2012.
Have a Happy and blessed New Year, Chris! Thank you for everything you do with the blog, and for us! Looking forward to the days ahead to see if we can get some snow in here!
Happy New Year to all my weather blog friends, as well! God bless you all and give you a wonderful 2012!
thanks chris for every thing and your dedication to the area weather and i hope you have a great new years day and a very prosperous new years to come and enjoy your extra day in 2012 as it is leap year just in case you had forgot,
i know this may sound weird but maybe u can use that extra day every 4 years to take a break from the blog, heck i know we will not have withdraws if we have to do with out the blog 1 time every 4 years. GO BENGALS!!!!!!!!!!!! any way thanks and may god be good to you during the year 2012.
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE !!
WOW!! I went to bed around 1am with temps. in the low 30’s and now its almost 9am and the temp. had risen to 55*!!!. And looking at radar a line of showers and looks like a thundershower is developing in central tn and is moving ne into southern, and s.eastern ky. later this morning…I feel like Rip Van Winkle…who slept thru his life…lol…I feel as if I slept thru winter and woke up on April 1st..instead of January 1st…LOL….
well its a start…lets see if more counties are added!
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MIDDLESBORO…PINEVILLE…HARLAN…
WHITESBURG…PIKEVILLE
425 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7
AM EST TUESDAY.
* SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER THE AREA DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY MORNING.
* ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST PLACES SEEING AT LEAST AN INCH ON THE
GROUND BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LIKELY SEE
BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS EVENT.
* COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE FOR
FLUFFY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL ENHANCE TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS…AND ALSO MAKE FOR PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. COLD ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
it look to be a far SE e ky thing as the winds of lake are true to a REAL upslope. hazaed east SE gets couple inches in mountains.
i say 1-3 inches and high end be on black montain ets as the most lifyt be rthere.
winds not set up for a real deal upslope.
people, i don’t know if any of you have been paying attention to the lowly gfs but for the past several runs it has a pretty good snow event from central kentucky through all of west virginia for the time peiod next sat. evening running through sunday morning.
not a long running event but looks like a lot of moisture content. the 500mb 0 degree line runs well south of these areas during this time so i don’t think it is a question of cold ait being in place, the only question is, coming from the gfs is this thing for real.
the model prints out about .75 in about 3 hour period and that would be some heavy snow and considering it is coming in during the night ime hours would also be a bonus.
Happy New Year to all! Wishing all a healthy and prosporus 2012,with a couple of good snows before the winter is over;).
The only issue I see is surface temps being to warm. Just gonna have to watch and see. Hopefully it will be cold enough at surface for snow.
No one talking snow for Bowling Green or Somerset……I guess traveling East tomorrow won’t help me to see any snow?!?!?
i have seen it come a 6 inch snow in march such as back in 96 after being in the 70s at midnight the previous night and after going through a stretch of days in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 40s. a major cold front went through about 3am that morning with a ton of heavy rain the temp went from 70ish around 2 or 3 to upper 20s by 6am with a change over between 5am and 6am with huge flakes and remember this was a surprise, there was no mention of accum. for the same reason we are talking now, ground way to warm, well guess what happened, from 6am to 9am we had 2 inches of very heavy wet snow per hour with 6 inches by 9am in a very freak snow storm.
so i know you r not the only one that claims the ground becomes too warm but i think that is all a bunch of talk because if it snows hard enough it can overcome the warm ground. i agree with you if it is just a run of the mill snow storm the ground would probably play a big factor in accumalations.
i hope u don’t take me the wrong way, i respect your input and i agree with you to a certain degree but the ground temp does not have to be below freezing for us to get a big snow. i do however realize that there is more pavement now than back in the 90s and that is another factor to consider.
thanks my friend for letting me chat with u a little bit on this uneventful day of weather on the 1st day of 2012.
Happy New Year Chris and my fellow bloggers!! Here is to hoping 2012 brings us our fair share of winter weather and that spring hits just in time for March 21st ;).
I know I read Chris including central Kentucky in on the snow shower chance. Anybody see places like Frankfort, Lexington, and Georgetown getting in on any light accumulating snows???
Please do not bring up the Gfs forecasting a snow event a week out. I am thru with all the models concerning possibilities of future snowfalls especially the Gfs. Hey I have idea lets start a Ky Weather Center model! I believe it would be as accurate as these casino models. HAPPY NEW YEARS!
70 Degrees outside and I am not joking. I wonder were this New Years will rank as far as warmest new years day.
Yeah most locations saw a 15*F rise in temps overnight ECMWF model nailed this. Don’t usually see that big of a rise occur at night. Only thought maybe 5*F rise regionwide myself. as in warmest New years I would call your NWS office maybe they will post it through the AFD.
rolo wrote:
well rolo here with a SNOW UPFDATE i see
as chris says lakes are open and first upslope of year is come, i can see 2-4 inches of snow by wed morning in SE AND EAST KY!!!
song of day
welcome to the jungle by GnR be interesting if AXLE will show up with all original memmebers at the HALL OF FAME IDUCTCION
Rolo, what do you think about north central Ky. The Harrison county area.
In preparation for another year of ankle biters or less I cut my grass down low the 1st of December so even a little snow hopefully will cover the grass. My next step will be to find a place to buy a snow machine. Got a feeling that’s the only way Im going to get decent snow in my yard in Woodford County.
All input should be valued like you stated, I agree with your opinion; it is not often to see the GFS stay with a solution like it has the last few runs for the time period in question; if nothing else, it is something to watch and an opportunity for all to add to their weather knowldege
i see 3 chances at snow over the next week and chris has has sights set on 2 of them already and i have a feeling he will start with the 3rd by monday. 1st is obviously monday and tuesday, 2nd is wed. into thursday with a clipper, 3rd and it may well be the biggest so far and that is saturday evening into sunday morning, while it will not last that long and it will be a quick hitter it looks to have plenty of moisture on the model known as the gfs…..i know, i know, take it with a grain of salt coming from the gfs. the 0 degree line is all the way down on tennessee through virginia so we need to keep an eye out for this and then after that the model is picking up on a pretty serious cold snap.
the gfs has been sniffing this out for a couple of days now so if it is still on the model come monday or tuesday it may really be on to something and besides, i am sure chris will be all over it before too long. as always time will tell.
not too shabby for for a snowless winter so far.
They where giving highs in the upper 40’s for today, we are at almost 60 degrees here in Morehead. I will believe snow when I see it.. I cant wait to retire, and move somewhere colder and that gets alot of snow!!
This weeks snow looks somewhat more promising but I refuse to get my hopes up because this winter hasn’t delivered anything substantial as far as temperatures or snow. We shall see and I truly hope this is the start of something good and snowy 🙂
That would be a pleasant suprise around here for sure. Hoping for winter to begin.
if the local station in the huntington, wva area does what i think they r going to do it will be the most pathetic thing they have done this football season.
the tv guide says they r going to show the steelers-browns game instead of the bengals-ravens game. if that happens they should get thousands of phone calls, letters and e-mails at their lowly station.
no wonder wsaz tv 3 has the best tv station.
a local football team that holds theirn own destiny, win and they r in, lose and they need help and they r not going to show it on local tv.
pitt. has already made the playoffs, who cares anyway? what a crock if indeed it does happen.
The 12z GFS has just waffled for next weekends storm. I’m sure it will waffle back and forth many times before then. Waiting for Chris’s thoughts on it.
my friend, are u looking at the same gfs 12z that i am looking at? the 12z 850mb shows a nice little heavy wet snow in a short amount of time for next sat. evening through sunday morning. from what i am looking at, there is no waffling going on at all, so far.
correct me if i am wrong. i have not looked at the other models. jma, euro, canadian which some of them don’t go out that far.
Toney, I just double checked and the storm and most precipitation goes SE of ky. Anybody elses opinion will be appreciated. Thanks.
yea WAFFLES that was not a todat posrt, i done sleeop all morning first off all, i look at MNODELS and my own way things at 330 this morning, the lakes ARE OPEN fore buisness if ur east and a tad SE but as far as KY gores its not a TRUE SET UP in wind off the lakes as it look to be 24-36 hours ago.
u keep my poost in ur archives son, i like that as u saw me it crow saying i didnt see not 20s fot temps early week, but ole rolo was wrong nd addmitted.
NOTICED u didnt post that though WAFFLES maybe u got burnt in the toaster this morening.lolllllllllllllllllll
BAILEY commited to 1-3 inches for CENTRAL/EASTEN KY with alot more on border mountains in his tweets.