Good Saturday, everyone. Rain and some thunderstorms are with us early today as our weather pattern starts to really rev up. Rounds of additional heavy rain will be with us through early Sunday before an interesting system rolls in Monday and Tuesday. This system looks like a rain to snow maker.

To simplify things, let’s go to the headlines:

  • Showers and some noisy thunderstorms are out there early today and will put down hit and run heavy rains.
  • The rain takes a bit of a break from the middle of the day into the afternoon with just scattered showers.
  • Another wave of rain moves across the area this evening through Sunday morning.
  • Some areas will pick up 1″-2″ of rain in this 24 hour period and that could lead to quick rises on some creeks and streams, especially in the southeast.
  • Super Bowl Sunday afternoon and evening turns pretty nice with drier and chillier air coming in.
  • Low pressure moves from near Nashville on Monday to near Pikeville Monday evening, to near Charleston, WV Tuesday morning.
  • That kind of track means rain pushes through Monday with the chance for a chance for a period of wet snow Monday night and Tuesday morning.
  • The best chance of that is across the northern half of Kentucky as colder air crashes in behind the low.
  • Some accumulation will be possible during this time.
  • Can we get a narrow band of thumping snows? That’s certainly a possibility.

The GFS has been the most consistent model in bringing a swath of wet snow into our part of the world. That has not changed one bit…

This barely gets into the range of the NAM, but it has  the band of snow…

The late afternoon run of the EURO strongly trended toward the GFS with a healthy snow hit for some…

The latest run followed that up with a very similar look…

The average of the 21 member GFS Ensembles has a decent look for some snow across the northern half of Kentucky…

Northern Kentucky… Can we get this thing to a Winter Storm THREAT? Hmmm… That’s a good question.

From here, the models have no idea on how to play the next few systems late next week into the weekend. We will need to watch for a trend toward another southern stream storm system that can bring another winter threat to the region.

I will have another update later today. Until then, let’s track some showers and storms to start the day…

Have a great day and take care.