Good afternoon, everyone. I’ve decided to pull the trigger and upgrade to a full-blown Winter Storm THREAT from late Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. The storm system coming our way has been well advertised, but the track is starting to become more apparent and it’s one that can bring some healthy snows to parts of Kentucky.
Here’s a look at the Winter Storm THREAT area…
Again, this is just a THREAT for the potential of, at least, 4″ of snow. The lines will also be adjusted so don’t get too caught up in where they are right now because things will likely change with updates. If confidence increases, then we will upgrade to a full-blown ALERT for parts of the area. If confidence decreases, we will simply track whatever Mother Nature throws our way. The regulars know how this works, but the newbies need an explainer.
The flatter more west to east tracking low scenario is the trend of the models today and, if that holds, is a good one for snow lovers.
After rain much of Monday, the future radar of the HRRR a heavy band of wet snow developing on the north and west side of the low, pushing east across the state…
Here’s the snow map from that run of the HRRR…
The model is also showing a nice band of sleet…
The NAM is fairly similar to the HRRR with it’s snowfall corridor…
The GFS shifted has a bit more of a southwest-northeast orientation to this band of snow…
The WRF-ARW…
The RRFS…
The RAP is farther southeast…
The new EURO is even farther southeast…
The GFS Ensembles shows the average snowfall of 21 different members and lines of with the Ohio River…
The Hi Res NAM is the lone holdout on the southward shift of the day as it keeps the heaviest snow north of the Ohio River…
I cannot discount that solution, but it doesn’t have any friends right now. Of course, that could easily change with the next set of runs.
As you can see, this storm system is still a work in progress with lots of changes to the forecast still to come.
I will have additional updates later today and will be on WKYT News on the CW Lexington at 6pm and 10pm, then on WKYT-TV at 11.
Enjoy the evening and take care.
The snowfall will take place late night in my area.
The majority of us will not see it fall.
But it will be nice to wake up to a white ground.
According to the various models, the heaviest area of snow is going to be in a very narrow line, with a sharp cutoff of snowfall totals to the north and south. It’s going to be a challenge to narrow down which areas get the heaviest snow.
Looks like most, if not all, of KY will get at least some snow, so you guys enjoy it!
You guys that hasn’t had snow I hope you get it.I guess it will be mostly rain for us but that’s okay I got me a good snow last time.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.