Merry Christmas everyone. I hope you make this the best Christmas ever and that Santa is good to you. If not… there’s nothing wrong with a little coal in your stocking. 
We have a very nice weather day in progress as really start to focus on a storm that’s set to impact the region over the next few days.
This system is now taking on a MUCH more wintry look as it tracks to our south and east Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will have a decent amount of cold air to work with and should provide a swath of snow north and west of its track. That COULD include parts of our area.
The models certainly pass the look test…
European Model
Canadian Model
GFS Ensembles
GFS
This system is certainly getting a lot more of my attention as that’s usually a track that gives us some snow and we do have sufficient cold air diving into the storm. Odds favor rain moving in Monday night with a mix and switch to snow Tuesday. That’s all I can tell you at this point.
There should be a system diving in from the northwest behind this departing storm and that’s something to watch. The models are also going wild with a possible storm and deep trough as we start out the new year…
It looks like mother nature is finally flipping the switch to winter! I will have another update very late today, so be sure to check back. Christmas or not… your friendly weatherdude is still on the job for you guys.
Have a wonderful day and Merry Christmas. Take care.
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that why we are hear because we have a special weatherdude ya that you chris….
Merry Christmas Chris and bloggers. May you and your families be blessed. Thanks for being there for us, Chris. Maybe we’ll get a little snow after all this week. It may be a couple days late, but I’ll take it. Have a great day all 🙂
Merry Christmas to Chris,the best weatherman I know and to everyone on this blog.
CB i know your probably estatic over the bengals game lol 🙂 Bring on the pow and merry xmas
0z nam says 3-6 inches for st. louis to dayton. i agree with this, its frustrating for KY this go around because even as this low passes at what is looking like a perfect track the 850s are over 32 as are surface temps
🙁
Ypu are awesome, Chris! Merry Christmas to you and your family!
Decent frost out there this morning making things look a bit snowy. Thanks CB for all the work you do. Have a very, merry Christmas all!
Merry Christmas to all the blog family !!! May your day be filled with family , fun , and Happiness !!
Thanks for even taking time out of your Christmas to keep everyone in KY up to date! Merry Christmas to you and your family!
I really hope it starts dropping some snow soon. I’m swinging to get in some snow camping.
Here’s an old saying . When it clouds on a frost. Snow in the days to come! And this Christmas morning had a huge snowlike frost here in southern KY. And the clouds rolled in!
Meteorologically speaking this a broad area of low pressure coming Mon-Tue which and the models are having a hard time tracking it. A cut up to our west would give us to much Warm air advection for a changeover, kind of what the 12z nam has if you look at the 3hr maps you notice about 4 or 5 L’s over our region meaning the model can’t make out where the low is over KY or in the southeast. IF the low track is more favorable, Enough cool air could push in Tuesday coupled with cooling due to precipitation, dynamical cooling to change rain to snow Tuesday afternoon. This morning’s run of the ECMWF showed that well. I like the idea of banded precip Tuesday afternoon, it could snow in the heavier bands and rain around the hvy precip. These details should be more clear Monday. Merry Christmas everyone!
Folks I would be surprise if anybody receives over an inch from this next event. The models are all over the place. The air in this region is borderline cold.When in doubt the best bet is liquid.
Let’s just get that little blue line to our right, with the green stuff on top of us. That’s all we need for the white stuff!
Blue Line Right + Green On Top = White On Our Heads!
I don’t think I’d go into the dynamical cooling route at this point. Dynamical cooling does not occur due to enhanced lift…that is a latent heat release. Dynamical cooling occurs when you have precipitation aloft falling into drier air. That may happen for a very brief period at precipitation onset late Monday night, but based on the latest model guidance, it would be extremely brief as the lower levels moisten considerably.
Merry Christmas Everyone!
Thanks, CB, for taking the time to update.
I always thought that dynamic cooling was when snow precipitation intensity in the upper atmosphere was heavy enough enabling it to overcome the above freezing surface temps therefore allowing precip to fall as snow all the way down.
So was Feb 1998 a dynamic cooling event? Cause I don’t think there was much dry air associated with that system.
Check out this info. from Environment Canada they are the weather service in canada. http://news.discovery.com/earth/canada-dreaming-of-white-christmas-111222.html This info. came from WeatherNation TV a NEW 24/7 weather channel http://weathernationheadlines.blogspot.com/2011/12/december-25-merry-christmas-white.html you can read more here and LIKE them on facebook at http://www.facebook.com/weathernation
Thanks for taking the time to update Chris. It is so appreciated by so many people. Can’t wait to hear what the latest computer models are saying later today! It seems like some other local meteorologists are jumping on board with an interesting Tuesday into Tuesday night system. We shall see!! A half inch of snow would be impressive at this point!!
From what I recall, the February 1998 was a large cut off low that developed over southern Mid-Atlantic. Given its location, we got a deep fetch of moisture off the Atlantic which overspread our region where cold air was already in place.
Dynamic cooling has to involve evaporation. If you have snow or rain falling into a dry atmosphere, two things happen. First, the atmosphere will cool due to the evaporation of the snow or rain. Second, you will moisten up the atmosphere due to all the precipitation falling and evaporating. The idea of getting snow to the ground revolves around how deep your cold air is. You can have tremendous amounts of cold air aloft, but if you have 1500-2000 ft of warm air near the surface, the snow won’t make it. Though, through the cooling effects of evaporation, that warm layer near the surface can be cooled sufficiently.
Thanks! So dynamic cooling cannot happen if the atmosphere is already saturated, like in the middle of a storm. It would most likely happen at the beginning of a storm when the atmosphere is moistening up.
I was just reading the NWS significant storms of 2011 write up. The february 7th snowstorm was not due to dynamical cooling, then?
Merry Christmas to all. Traveling south over the next few days. I am sure it will snow and I will miss it. Just my luck???
ROLO…How is the Pork Loin and Bourbon????
Cooling that results from decreasing pressure. Therefore, dynamic heating results from increasing pressure.
A definition from the Noaa glossary,
Because the pressure gradient is much stronger in the vertical than in the horizontal, ‘dynamic’ changes in temperature due to expansion or compression are more likely to occur from vertical motion than from horizontal motion.
And another thing the storm in 1998 changed to snow about 8-9 hours quicker than expected because of dynamic cooling, just google dynamic cooling and a paper from noaa will appear on the 1998 storm and the role dynamic cooling played.
Wishing all my fellow weather nuts a very Merry Christmas…hope you get what weather you are wanting in the days to come. Still got my fingers crossed for snow and lots of it. Have a great day everyone!!!!
That may be true in most instances; however, there are additional factors that can contribute to dynamic cooling, including a decrease in freezing levels above ground level.
In addition, ground observations are important as any change in precipitation could become a sign of an unexpected shift in the freezing levels.
really CB, weak away u say make up for XMAS noshowsanow. man please dont get the crazy on ur back again. us old schoolers understandwhat ur saying it showing up on mofdels. but when it donr happen this ametur will be all over you.
thaty said next weekend will be rain, with snow as precip exixts meaning NOTHING. but look like upslope could set up but we need temps in mid 20 to frezzing for that and i dont see that cold till sysytem gone and then cold air rushes in with sunny skies.
PRAY HARDER PEOPLE. THIS FROM JKL…..
NAO HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS
ALMOST AT ITS STRONGEST POINT THUS FAR THIS WINTER. THUS…NO
BLOCKING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR SOME TIME TO COME.
THIS MEANS THE WINTRY COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOCKED UP WELL TO OUR
NORTH…LEAVING KENTUCKY IN A PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER FOR SOME TIME
TO COME. EVEN NAO FORECAST ENSEMBLES KEEP THIS CYCLE POSITIVE WELL
INTO JANUARY…SO ANY PROSPECTS OF COLD WEATHER SEEM VERY DISTANT AT
THIS TIME.
He just sayin the models r picking up on the ideal of maybe something going down round newyears, aint that what everybody is here for to watch the models and track what might happen down the road and if the models is showing it its worth talking bout. Little harsh words there i think
Don’t know how I feel about that statement from Jackson. There are notable changes being shown from the CMC and Euro, among others. Arctic outbreak via the 00Z CMC…Euro has a good trough in the East…not sure how this exactly relates to what the GFS Ensembles are showing. But it appears to be in “fairly” good agreement in the long range, but I’m probably caught up in wishful thinking knowing me. Lack of blocking doesn’t always mean temps will be raging warmer.