Good Monday and welcome to July. We are entering what is traditionally the hottest month of the year with a temp pattern more typical of the middle of September. This pleasant air won’t stick around very long as steamy temps and rounds of storms settle in for the 4th of July holiday period.

Today is likely the coolest overall July 1st since 2010. The day starts in the 50s and ends with 75-80 for many. Humidity is bone dry for this time of year, giving us that early football season feel and look.

Temps tonight are back into the low and middle 50s…

Temps rebound quickly by Tuesday afternoon with mid and upper 90s. Those numbers climb even more for Wednesday as humidity levels soar. Wednesday is a pretty toasty day across our part of the world.

Scattered showers and storms go up during the afternoon and evening as we go into a stormy setup for the 4th of July into the upcoming holiday weekend. Here’s the EURO from Wednesday evening through Friday evening…

A few severe storms will be possible during this time and any storm that goes up can put down torrential rains, bringing a local flash flood risk.

Another system then dives in from the northwest later in the weekend and into the first half of next week. More showers and storms are likely…

 

 

 

We are getting into the time of year where the tropics can impact the overall pattern across North America. Hurricane Beryl hit category 4 status on Sunday, becoming the earliest Cat 4 storm in recorded history.

Beryl is barreling through the Caribbean…

cone graphic

The satellite shot of this monster storm is both a thing of beauty and frightening at the same time…

This is likely heading toward the Yucatan later this week. Can it get into the Gulf of Mexico? That’s a possibility.

Here are the latest spaghetti plots from the hurricane models…

The latest from the GFS Ensembles…

And the Global Ensembles…

Tropical Storm Chris formed in the southern Gulf overnight just before moving into Mexico. That leaves the system behind Beryl to be named Debby very soon…

Make it a great Monday and take care.